Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:13:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd325…a4c4 crypto 526 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (95 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,361 (-2%) realized −$6,352 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%330W / 202L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$587per market
Trades / day95.4pace
Fees−$450est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 35d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$10,628
sports 18% −$2,268
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (95 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -19.6% -27.2% 57% 52% -18.0%
≤30d 405 -6.2% -15.1% 61% 58% -12.9%
≤90d 532 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 57% -12.5%
all 532 -5.6% -14.6% 62% 57% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 57% -12.5%
10% -22.7% 43% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -30.2% 31% -28.6%
20% -37.1% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$767) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$218 vs −$420 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$1,151
Realized−$6,352
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses330 / 202
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$450
Open positions1
Markets (closed)532 / 526
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$587
Trades / day95.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $1,160 $1,151 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 131 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $513 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $876 −$850 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,274 −$1,250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $1,022 +$447 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $1,264 +$204 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $774 −$750 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,285 +$719 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,526 −$250 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1,129 +$682 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $713 +$219 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $457 +$254 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $403 +$46 +12%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $2,512 −$2,198 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1,274 +$359 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $717 +$388 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $1,206 −$9 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,112 +$170 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,025 +$549 +54%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $1,505 −$1,500 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $1,014 +$247 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $1,014 +$202 +20%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1,204 −$1,199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 10 $259 −$250 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 10 $710 +$142 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 10 $206 +$130 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 10 $668 +$440 +66%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $705 −$700 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 10 $409 +$184 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $767 −$750 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $514 +$315 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $456 +$88 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $1,268 −$1,020 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $509 +$135 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $1,011 +$80 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $1,062 +$176 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 10 $361 −$350 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $1,007 +$91 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 10 $51 +$32 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 10 $760 +$97 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 10 $1,012 +$190 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $518 +$493 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 10 $359 +$174 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $254 +$75 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $1,171 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $256 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $256 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $258 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $258 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $256 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $255 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $255 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $255 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $255 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $255 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $255 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $256 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $256 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $256 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1,467 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $253 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $253 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $253 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $253 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $253 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $257 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $257 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $259 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1,859 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $144 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $257 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $258 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $258 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,151.02 · official $1,151.02 (match) · 3500 history records