Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:48:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd325…fd1b sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,208 (-5%) realized −$436 · open −$772
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%14W / 25L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$625per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$251est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,128now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,415
7 days−$5,009
14 days−$1,417
30 days−$1,417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$1,089
other 47% −$105
crypto 4% −$995
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -46.7% -51.8% 24% 24% -42.7%
≤30d 39 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -15.0%
≤90d 39 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -15.0%
all 39 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 36% -15.0%
10% -32.8% 33% -23.1%
15% -39.3% 31% -30.6%
20% -45.3% 28% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$812) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$812 vs −$533 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$1,128
Realized−$436
Unrealized−$772
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$251
Open positions3
Markets (closed)39 / 42
History coverage10d
Avg bet$625
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: France (-2.5) France 57¢ 44¢ $1,000 $763 −$237 (-24%)
Spread: France (-3.5) France 35¢ 16¢ $600 $283 −$317 (-53%)
Spread: France (-4.5) France 22¢ 6¢ $300 $82 −$218 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $512 $0 +0%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2,032 −$1,995 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $1,221 −$1,200 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $1,020 +$1,880 +184%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,022 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $510 +$615 +120%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $812 −$800 -98%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $613 −$600 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $812 +$780 +96%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$330 +108%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,011 +$576 +57%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $507 −$500 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,012 −$800 -79%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $509 −$500 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $478 +$321 +67%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $107 −$105 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $573 +$234 +41%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $368 +$831 +226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $995 −$995 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $811 −$811 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $984 −$984 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $538 +$1,162 +216%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $377 +$76 +20%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3,185 +$1,764 +55%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $354 +$240 +68%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $523 +$151 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $584 +$2,413 +413%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 22¢ $307 1h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 35¢ $612 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $1,013 1h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $512 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,032 21h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 43¢ $1,221 27h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Spain 93¢ $2,900 29h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1,022 31h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 32¢ $1,020 31h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 31¢ $102 45h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 77¢ $839 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 77¢ $285 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 34¢ $510 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $205 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 2d
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Haiti 48¢ $812 2d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 20¢ $102 2d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $305 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $506 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 83¢ $635 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $205 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 39¢ $305 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $1,011 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $507 4d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $61 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,127.86 · official $1,127.86 (match) · 79 history records