Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:49:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd326…a07d crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$47 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate66%25W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$105
other 27% +$140
sports 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +12.3% +1.6% 71% 71% +5.5%
≤30d 38 +3.3% -6.5% 66% 58% -9.7%
≤90d 38 +3.3% -6.5% 66% 58% -9.7%
all 38 +3.3% -6.5% 66% 58% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 58% -9.7%
10% -15.5% 47% -18.4%
15% -23.6% 34% -26.2%
20% -31.1% 29% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$23 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses25 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)38 / 40
History coverage25d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 80¢ $130 $179 +$49 (+38%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 70¢ 24¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1 $0 +32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $40 +$12 +30%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $25 +$14 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 30 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 30 $57 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 30 $16 +$15 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 30 $15 +$8 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 30 $21 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 30 $51 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 30 $61 +$21 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 30 $50 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 30 $10 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 30 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 30 $10 +$14 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET May 30 $26 −$19 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 30 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET May 30 $26 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 30 $52 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 30 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 26 $36 +$25 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 26 $26 +$12 +48%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $14 +$11 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 26 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 26 $15 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 26 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $81 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $2 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $1 13h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $5 13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $51 19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $104 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $40 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 25h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 27h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $26 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $29 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $24 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $181.64 · official $183.87 · 105 history records