Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd326…06cd crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-15%) realized −$14 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$14
other 12% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 50% -28.8%
≤30d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 50% -28.8%
≤90d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 50% -28.8%
all 4 -20.1% -27.7% 50% 50% -28.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 50% -28.8%
10% -34.6% 25% -35.6%
15% -40.9% 0% -41.9%
20% -46.7% 0% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $10 $7 −$2 (-25%)
GTA VI released before November 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$17 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$4 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GTA VI released before November 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 19¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.99 · official $9.99 (match) · 13 history records