Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:02:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D3 0xd32e…b577 sports 237 markets active 6h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (67 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,089 (+17%) realized +$9,089 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate74%175W / 62L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day67.4pace
Fees−$604est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,668
7 days+$4,640
14 days+$7,772
30 days+$7,772
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$3,542
sports 44% +$3,409
crypto 2% +$878
world 1% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (67 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-1.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 +12.2% +1.5% 78% 40% +9.4%
≤30d 237 +9.5% -1.0% 74% 35% +3.3%
≤90d 237 +9.5% -1.0% 74% 35% +3.3%
all 237 +9.5% -1.0% 74% 35% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover67.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.0% 35% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here -10.4% 19% -6.6%
15% -19.1% 11% -15.6%
20% -27.0% 6% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$37 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9,089
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses175 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$604
Open positions0
Markets (closed)237 / 237
History coverage14d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day67.4
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 237 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,038 +$494 +48%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $25 $0 -1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $1,702 +$1,451 +85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $2,465 −$258 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $173 +$15 +9%
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna Jun 25 $118 −$16 -13%
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic Jun 25 $25 +$2 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Jerome Kym Jun 25 $404 −$29 -7%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $544 +$44 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Iryna Shymanovich vs Katherine Sebov Jun 25 $2 +$1 +29%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $24 +$1 +4%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $919 +$1,810 +197%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $25 +$2 +8%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,417 −$84 -6%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $222 +$80 +36%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $96 +$81 +84%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $321 −$8 -3%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $344 +$110 +32%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 24 $176 −$51 -29%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 24 $98 +$1 +1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,400 −$5 -0%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-2.5) Jun 24 $1 $0 +11%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Jun 24 $98 +$7 +7%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Xiyu Wang vs Marina Bassols Ribera Jun 24 $37 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Harold Mayot Jun 24 $30 +$2 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Julia Riera vs Fiona Crawley Jun 24 $12 +$1 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 24 $18 $0 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Darwin Blanch Jun 24 $21 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Gauthier Onclin vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 24 $367 +$14 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Daniel Evans vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 24 $9 $0 +1%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $297 −$60 -20%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $850 −$223 -26%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 24 $44 +$5 +11%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 23 $8 +$1 +9%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Carol Young Suh Lee Jun 23 $0 $0 +53%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $7 +$1 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lola Radivojevic vs Marina Bassols Riber Jun 23 $2 $0 +15%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $36 +$2 +6%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ekaterine Gorgodze vs Vendula Valdmannov Jun 23 $1 $0 +10%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Fiona Crawley vs Himeno Sakatsume Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Francisca Jorge Jun 23 $386 +$32 +8%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Taylah Preston Jun 23 $114 +$8 +7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,026 +$223 +22%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $854 +$95 +11%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $365 +$34 +9%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $23 +$4 +18%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 23 $1 $0 -11%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $37 −$20 -54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $736 +$421 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 41¢ $884 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 41¢ $21 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $626 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $1,037 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 26¢ $0 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 6h
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States 48¢ $25 7h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 47¢ $25 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 67¢ $723 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 70¢ $1,613 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 75¢ $817 8h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $1,702 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $0 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 46¢ $1,516 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,786 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 70¢ $336 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 72¢ $324 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 69¢ $652 11h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 93¢ $188 12h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 85¢ $173 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 77¢ $31 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 66¢ $27 13h
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 82¢ $83 16h
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna SELL Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 84¢ $20 16h
Piracicaba: Thiago Cigarran vs Santiago Rodriguez Taverna BUY Santiago Rodriguez Taverna 94¢ $118 16h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic SELL Sumit Nagal 67¢ $27 17h
Targu Mures: Sumit Nagal vs Duje Ajdukovic BUY Sumit Nagal 61¢ $25 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.51 · official $0.00 (match) · 945 history records