Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:12:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd32f…1496 sports 144 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (452 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$28,157 (+5%) realized +$32,582 · open −$4,425
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate70%96W / 42L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$4,036per market
Trades / day452.1pace
Fees−$6,922est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$12,113now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$20,129
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (452 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
≤30d 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
≤90d 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
all 138 +21.5% +9.9% 70% 54% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover452.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.9% 54% -5.6%
10% -0.6% 39% -14.7%
15% ← realistic here -10.2% 22% -22.9%
20% -19.0% 12% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$4,794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
20.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$803 vs −$1,251 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$12,113
Realized+$32,582
Unrealized−$4,425
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses96 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$6,922
Open positions6
Markets (closed)138 / 144
History coverage6d
Avg bet$4,036
Trades / day452.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 9z 52¢ 100¢ $3,151 $6,048 +$2,897 (+92%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 9z 60¢ 100¢ $2,158 $3,622 +$1,464 (+68%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 72¢ 100¢ $1,227 $1,703 +$476 (+39%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 40¢ 48¢ $409 $495 +$86 (+21%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 37¢ 40¢ $167 $180 +$14 (+8%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 48¢ 53¢ $51 $57 +$5 (+10%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 25¢ 0¢ $1,850 $4 −$1,846 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 37¢ 0¢ $1,863 $3 −$1,861 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 40¢ 0¢ $824 $1 −$823 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 15 $33,456 −$3,613 -11%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $465 −$465 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $490 −$490 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 15 $1,666 −$165 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $655 −$435 -66%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2,596 +$160 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $672 −$578 -86%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3,893 −$1,483 -38%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2,641 −$2,387 -90%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2,758 −$2,758 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $9,531 +$398 +4%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $4,528 +$1,752 +39%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $7,217 +$1,866 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,153 +$942 +82%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $6,764 +$2,087 +31%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,760 +$2,075 +75%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,460 −$413 -28%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,797 +$310 +17%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,082 +$314 +29%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,838 −$587 -32%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1,800 +$264 +15%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $3,289 +$267 +8%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2,593 +$1,044 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $8,322 +$2,512 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $18,573 +$1,690 +9%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $589 +$258 +44%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $8,008 +$758 +10%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4,794 +$867 +18%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 14 $2,016 −$748 -37%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10,722 +$116 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 14 $12,093 −$3,761 -31%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $13,912 −$3,041 -22%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7,265 +$264 +4%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 14 $7,977 −$1,523 -19%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2,956 −$1,788 -60%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $11,279 −$4,236 -38%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $12,324 −$5,622 -46%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,120 −$4,120 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $29,219 +$8,477 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $8,697 +$2,492 +29%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,766 +$687 +39%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $2,336 +$557 +24%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3,873 +$630 +16%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $807 +$414 +51%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,433 +$865 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $9,532 +$2,488 +26%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,518 +$8 +0%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $271 +$91 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $4,661 +$75 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 48¢ $52 2m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 45¢ $8 4m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 45¢ $0 4m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $0 24m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $10 24m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $16 24m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $1 24m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $77 24m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 22¢ $229 27m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 75¢ $174 27m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $9 30m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 67¢ $816 30m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $9 33m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 56¢ $113 33m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $148 33m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $4 34m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $2 34m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $1 34m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 41¢ $3 34m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 37¢ $167 36m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 37¢ $59 39m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 8¢ $43 51m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $54 52m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 59¢ $266 54m
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 72¢ $1,090 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $792 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 48¢ $732 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 46¢ $690 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 87¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 11¢ $165 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12,112.97 · official $12,087.66 (match) · 3225 history records