Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D3 0xd331…d738 crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,133 (+162%) realized +$34 · open +$2,100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +45% what you keep after slip
Net edge+45%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% +21.5%
≤30d 2 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% +21.5%
≤90d 2 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% +21.5%
all 2 +73.9% +57.3% 50% 50% +21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +57.3% 50% +21.5%
10% +42.2% 50% +9.9%
15% +28.5% 50% -0.7%
20% +15.9% 50% -10.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$61 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,247
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$2,100
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)2 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Up 12¢ 50¢ $234 $1,013 +$779 (+333%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Up 10¢ 50¢ $192 $947 +$754 (+392%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 29¢ 50¢ $300 $517 +$217 (+72%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 15¢ 50¢ $105 $354 +$249 (+237%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Down 27¢ 68¢ $100 $254 +$154 (+154%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 31¢ 50¢ $100 $163 +$63 (+63%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $117 $0 −$117 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 21 $38 +$95 +248%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $61 −$61 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,247.23 · official $3,245.59 (match) · 18 history records