Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:39:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd331…733c sports 721 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (239 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43,349 (-11%) realized −$41,789 · open −$1,560
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate38%258W / 430L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day239.1pace
Fees−$2,847est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$65,564now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15,453
7 days−$6,528
14 days−$33,338
30 days−$33,338
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$2,322
other 41% −$12,583
economics 1% +$804
crypto 1% −$1,233
world 0% −$75
politics 0% +$980
tech 0% −$894
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (239 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 398 -46.6% -51.7% 28% 20% -13.5%
≤30d 688 -18.7% -26.5% 38% 31% -18.2%
≤90d 688 -18.7% -26.5% 38% 31% -18.2%
all 688 -18.7% -26.5% 38% 31% -18.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover239.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 31% -18.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 24% -26.0%
15% -39.9% 22% -33.2%
20% -45.8% 18% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -54% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$486 vs −$369 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$65,564
Realized−$41,789
Unrealized−$1,560
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses258 / 430
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$2,847
Open positions161
Markets (closed)688 / 721
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$531
Trades / day239.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 161 History 688 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 60¢ $9,795 $7,759 −$2,036 (-21%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $5,756 $5,646 −$110 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $5,125 $5,083 −$42 (-1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $4,643 $4,634 −$8 (-0%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 54¢ 66¢ $3,432 $4,173 +$741 (+22%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $2,300 $2,250 −$50 (-2%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $1,124 $2,203 +$1,079 (+96%)
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Yes 75¢ 53¢ $3,025 $2,131 −$894 (-30%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,775 $1,903 +$128 (+7%)
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House No 54¢ 57¢ $1,676 $1,780 +$104 (+6%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $1,748 $1,689 −$59 (-3%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $1,494 $1,601 +$107 (+7%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 46¢ $1,507 $1,310 −$197 (-13%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 59¢ 100¢ $723 $1,225 +$502 (+69%)
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 71¢ 67¢ $1,184 $1,116 −$67 (-6%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $801 $926 +$125 (+16%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 64¢ 61¢ $825 $791 −$34 (-4%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 45¢ 43¢ $807 $763 −$44 (-5%)
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $641 $639 −$1 (-0%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $592 $620 +$29 (+5%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $538 $612 +$74 (+14%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $610 $604 −$6 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 66¢ $598 $596 −$2 (-0%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 25¢ 31¢ $408 $498 +$90 (+22%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $477 $473 −$4 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 313 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs L1ga Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Singapore vs. Mongolia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Will SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Germany vs. Finland end in a draw? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-01? Jun 15 $404 −$404 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $639 −$639 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $1,960 −$1,960 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-03? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma Jun 15 $1,311 −$1,311 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 15 $72 −$192 -267%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-17? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $188 −$188 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-10? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs Jun 15 $28 −$28 -100%
Avalanche vs. Wild Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-05-30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Canada vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 15 $358 −$358 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: 1win vs PlayTime (BO3) - 1win Essence Group A Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $94 −$94 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? Jun 15 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: Zomblers vs InControl (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champi Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $223 −$223 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 15 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $4,877 9m
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 23m
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 23m
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 25m
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $96 27m
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 13¢ $240 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 1h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $199 1h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $645 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $39 1h
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 29¢ $4 1h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $49 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $136 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $38 1h
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $5 1h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 2h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65,564.08 · official $65,564.28 (match) · 3500 history records