Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:19:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd333…53f9 weather 457 markets active 4d ago coverage 326d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate31%142W / 315L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 326d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% −$2,333
crypto 2% −$29
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -56.7% -60.9% 25% 25% -54.0%
≤30d 16 -24.8% -31.9% 31% 31% -37.3%
≤90d 210 +3.2% -6.6% 30% 28% -14.1%
all 457 -22.3% -29.7% 31% 26% -52.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 26% -52.1%
10% -36.4% 21% -56.7%
15% -42.6% 18% -60.9%
20% -48.2% 15% -64.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -46% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$11 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

326d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses142 / 315
Open positions0
Markets (closed)457 / 457
History coverage326d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 457 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 4? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +148%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? May 29 $0 +$2 +446%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on May 7? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 6? May 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C or higher on May 6? May 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? May 09 $3 +$2 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? May 08 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 6? May 06 $7 +$2 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 5? May 06 $26 −$24 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 5? May 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on May 6? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 06 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on May 5? May 06 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 6? May 06 $6 +$4 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on May 5? May 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 4? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? May 05 $21 +$28 +135%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on May 4? May 05 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 4? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on May 4? May 05 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 4? May 05 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 5? May 05 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 4? May 04 $7 +$24 +317%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 4? May 04 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 4? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on May 4? May 04 $8 −$6 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on May 4? May 04 $2 +$5 +247%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on May 3? May 04 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 3? May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on May 3? May 03 $4 +$5 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 2? May 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on May 2? May 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on May 3? May 03 $19 +$24 +130%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 93¢ $3 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 39¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL Yes 75¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 8? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 10d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 4? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 15d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 1? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 17d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 1? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 17d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? SELL Yes 30¢ $3 17d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C or higher on June 1? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 17d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on May 29? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on May 11? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on May 11? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 38d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY No 7¢ $0 40d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 66°F or higher on May 9? BUY No 7¢ $1 40d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? SELL No 100¢ $5 40d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on May 8? BUY No 60¢ $3 41d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on May 7? BUY No 70¢ $1 41d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 42d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 7? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2875 history records