Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd334…b01b other 128 markets active 2h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,418 (-1%) realized −$1,421 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate28%35W / 92L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,207per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$915now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$11
14 days−$28
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$1,758
politics 32% −$72
sports 15% +$394
culture 2% −$4
crypto 2% +$5
economics 1% −$1
world 0% −$22
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -18.7% -26.5% 7% 0% -13.1%
all 127 +0.6% -8.9% 28% 10% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 10% -10.4%
10% -17.7% 10% -19.0%
15% -25.6% 9% -26.8%
20% -32.9% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,524) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +18% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$68 vs −$43 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$915
Realized−$1,421
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses35 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)127 / 128
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,207
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $912 $915 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $1,393 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,671 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,628 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,077 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $2,846 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $5,340 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,034 −$3 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,842 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,222 −$2 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,360 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,223 −$3 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,614 −$3 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,023 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $5,378 −$6 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,836 −$6 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $507 +$1 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $831 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $808 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,173 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 24 $1,038 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $2,823 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,207 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? May 19 $713 −$2 -0%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-09? May 19 $1,660 −$1,660 -100%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $3,216 +$6 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 02 $790 +$1 +0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $4,590 −$5 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,264 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $1,554 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,820 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $1,518 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $3,076 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,285 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,620 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,377 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,498 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoff Apr 13 $1,319 −$1,319 -100%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 28 $88 −$11 -12%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 141.5 Mar 27 $459 −$36 -8%
Will People’s Party (PPLE) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legisla Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $320 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $320 2h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 24h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $209 25h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $212 26h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $212 29h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $233 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $233 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $430 3d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $431 3d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $896 5d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 99¢ $17 5d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,076 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,077 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,309 8d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,310 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,273 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,274 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,241 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,243 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,068 9d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,069 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,220 10d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,222 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,358 14d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,360 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,328 14d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,330 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,305 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,308 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $914.91 · official $914.91 (match) · 423 history records