Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:47:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd335…f0de politics 25 markets active 8h ago coverage 593d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$104 (+2%) realized +$37 · open +$67
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$169per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29
7 days+$46
14 days+$107
30 days+$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% +$163
other 19% +$31
crypto 13% −$37
sports 10% +$133
world 8% −$284
tech 7% +$86
weather 4% +$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +5.8% -4.3% 60% 60% -5.3%
≤30d 14 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +5.5%
≤90d 14 +9.1% -1.3% 64% 64% +5.5%
all 24 -1.9% -11.3% 58% 54% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 54% -7.5%
10% -19.8% 46% -16.3%
15% -27.5% 38% -24.4%
20% -34.6% 25% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$101 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

593d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage593d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hurricanes win? Yes 69¢ 100¢ $150 $217 +$67 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $76 −$75 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $66 +$69 +105%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $66 −$65 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $151 +$66 +43%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $86 +$84 +97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $152 +$49 +32%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $66 +$72 +109%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $161 +$70 +44%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 04 $51 +$47 +93%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? Jun 02 $296 +$96 +32%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Mar 30 $327 −$284 -87%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? Feb 24 $205 −$205 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? Feb 24 $35 −$15 -43%
Will there be a US Government shutdown? Dec 20 $111 −$58 -52%
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? Dec 05 $151 −$76 -50%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $350 +$168 +48%
Trump nominates RFK Jr. to Cabinet? Nov 15 $619 +$90 +14%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Nov 11 $51 +$8 +15%
House control after 2024 election? Nov 08 $465 +$7 +2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $258 +$207 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hurricanes win? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 8h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $76 8h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $25 33h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $66 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $66 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $86 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 86¢ $201 6d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $66 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $152 6d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $161 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli BUY Flavio Cobolli 51¢ $51 17d
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? BUY No 75¢ $296 31d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? SELL Yes $43 447d
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 481d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? SELL Yes $20 481d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before July? BUY Yes $35 536d
Will there be a US Government shutdown? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 546d
Will there be a US Government shutdown? BUY Yes 39¢ $78 546d
Will there be a US Government shutdown? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 546d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? SELL Yes 27¢ $76 562d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? BUY Yes 54¢ $9 562d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 562d
Yoon out as president of South Korea in 2024? BUY Yes 54¢ $140 562d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 40¢ $55 563d
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? BUY No 27¢ $66 565d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.28 · official $217.28 (match) · 73 history records