Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd338…ae5b other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1,450 (+14%) realized +$1,268 · open −$52
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate47%9W / 10L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$473per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$552
7 days+$1,432
14 days+$1,432
30 days+$1,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 86% +$930
sports 7% +$423
other 5% −$68
tech 1% −$102
world 0% +$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +20.8% +9.3% 54% 38% +3.7%
≤30d 13 +20.8% +9.3% 54% 38% +3.7%
≤90d 19 +3.2% -6.6% 47% 32% +1.7%
all 19 +3.2% -6.6% 47% 32% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 32% +1.7%
10% -15.6% 32% -8.0%
15% -23.7% 26% -16.9%
20% -31.2% 21% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$197 vs −$50 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.51 per $1 lost it wins $3.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized+$1,268
Unrealized−$52
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses9 / 10
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage62d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 44¢ 24¢ $100 $56 −$44 (-44%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 56¢ 50¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 36¢ $48 $0 −$48 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $493 +$407 +83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $17 +$20 +113%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 −$13 -12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$40 -39%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 13 $2,696 +$147 +6%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$30 +38%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$47 +131%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$25 -50%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,169 −$196 -17%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $4,616 +$1,080 +23%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 08 $314 −$28 -9%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $51 +$33 +64%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $103 −$102 -100%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $50 −$48 -98%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Apr 28 $98 −$21 -21%
Peru General Election invalidated by June 30? Apr 24 $75 +$5 +7%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 14 $50 −$30 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $102 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $383 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $109 5h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 75¢ $37 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $5 19h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $12 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 56¢ $51 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 53¢ $89 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 21¢ $23 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 25h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $7 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $33 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 71¢ $53 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 71¢ $1 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 71¢ $3 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $30 27h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $591 28h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $70 28h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 98¢ $963 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 71¢ $57 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 45h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 72¢ $81 46h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 69¢ $82 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $36 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $25 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.93 · official $147.93 (match) · 226 history records