Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:58:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd33a…1fe2
sports · 301 markets active 2h ago
1.0score
−$4,851 -10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,726 · open −$126
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$838
Realized−$4,726
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses125 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$501
Open positions4
Markets (closed)296 / 301
History coverage85d
Avg bet$169
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%
Chart Positions 4 History 296 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$229
7 days−$1,522
14 days−$770
30 days−$1,388
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $300 $329 +$29 (+10%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Spirit 63¢ 62¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $200 $217 +$17 (+8%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 29¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
LoL: GMBLERS ESPORTS vs Zena Esports (BO5) - LIT Playoffs Zena Esports 38¢ 0¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner mCon esports 46¢ 0¢ $226 $0 −$226 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 25¢ 0¢ $93 $0 −$93 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs LOS 34¢ 0¢ $193 $0 −$193 (-100%)
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner Sentinels 64¢ 0¢ $397 $0 −$397 (-100%)
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado Coleman Wong 37¢ 0¢ $111 $0 −$111 (-100%)
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) EDward Gaming 64¢ 0¢ $223 $0 −$223 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Thunder Lakers 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challengers League Rounds 1-2 Nongshim Esports Academy 48¢ 0¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs JD Gaming 19¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Spread: Indiana Fever (-1.5) Indiana Fever 49¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 19¢ 0¢ $195 $0 −$195 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Liquid 55¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $330 $0 −$330 (-100%)
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming - Game 1 Winner EDward Gaming 29¢ 0¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Shopify Rebellion 9¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $175 $0 −$175 (-100%)
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs GAM Esports 39¢ 0¢ $109 $0 −$109 (-100%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner Shopify Rebellion 20¢ 0¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $250 +$413 +165%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $319 −$318 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 11 $331 −$325 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $283 +$365 +129%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $396 −$389 -98%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 06 $86 −$85 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $48 +$38 +79%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $91 −$89 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 06 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $334 −$330 -99%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $197 −$193 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $200 −$197 -98%
Libema Open, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs James McCabe Jun 06 $398 −$393 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $111 −$109 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $154 −$150 -98%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $221 +$296 +134%
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) Jun 05 $992 +$1,223 +123%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $200 −$195 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 03 $374 −$368 -98%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) Jun 03 $396 +$542 +137%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $200 +$62 +31%
Spread: Washington Mystics (-1.5) Jun 03 $201 +$166 +83%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 03 $302 −$298 -99%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $180 −$178 -99%
Haiti vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $87 −$85 -98%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 03 $450 +$218 +49%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $46 −$45 -98%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-13.5) Jun 02 $73 −$73 -99%
Will Wales vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 02 $226 +$593 +262%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $100 −$98 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $398 +$150 +38%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $305 −$271 -89%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $99 −$97 -98%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $230 −$226 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $273 +$299 +109%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 02 $301 +$357 +119%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $95 −$93 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $54 −$52 -97%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner May 31 $851 +$329 +39%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $680 −$672 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 1 Winner May 31 $100 −$98 -98%
Game Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) May 31 $405 −$400 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winner May 31 $125 +$182 +145%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $493 +$635 +129%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) May 31 $261 −$256 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $253 +$601 +237%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) May 30 $100 −$98 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 2 Winner May 30 $90 −$88 -98%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels - Game 1 Winner May 30 $401 −$397 -99%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $109 −$107 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% −$898
crypto 21% −$1,818
other 9% −$2,135
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) BUY Spirit 63¢ $303 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $167 4h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $250 21h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-0 BUY 8¢ $87 21h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 91¢ $319 35h
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 42¢ $331 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 43¢ $283 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 3d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Karmine Corp 39¢ $396 4d
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Vancouver Surge (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu BUY Vancouver Surge 57¢ $86 5d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL Team Liquid 100¢ $87 5d
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 55¢ $48 5d
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 28¢ $91 5d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 14¢ $57 5d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 58¢ $334 5d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOS 34¢ $197 5d
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Movistar KOI 50¢ $200 5d
Libema Open, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs James McCabe BUY Coleman Wong 62¢ $179 6d
Libema Open, Qualification: Coleman Wong vs James McCabe BUY Coleman Wong 58¢ $218 6d
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY GAM Esports 39¢ $111 6d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY JD Gaming 19¢ $154 6d
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs BUY ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix 42¢ $221 7d
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) SELL Anyones Legend 100¢ $2,214 7d
Game Handicap: AL (-2.5) vs LGD Gaming (+2.5) BUY Anyones Legend 44¢ $992 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 19¢ $200 8d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 48¢ $374 8d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 42¢ $298 9d
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5) BUY Colorado Rockies 41¢ $99 9d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 60¢ $302 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -43.3% -48.7% 25% 25% -49.6%
≤30d 106 -12.5% -20.8% 41% 40% -14.5%
≤90d 296 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 39% -17.9%
all 296 -12.4% -20.8% 42% 39% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.8% 39% -17.9%
10% -28.3% 37% -25.8%
15% -35.3% 34% -33.0%
20% -41.6% 28% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $838.08 · official $923.58 · 692 history records