Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:49:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D3 0xd33a…a409 crypto 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%64W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day28.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$177
7 days+$65
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$69
crypto 35% −$89
sports 3% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 105 +0.3% -9.2% 57% 44% -2.1%
≤30d 111 +1.5% -8.2% 58% 45% -3.3%
≤90d 111 +1.5% -8.2% 58% 45% -3.3%
all 111 +1.5% -8.2% 58% 45% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 45% -3.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 37% -12.6%
15% -25.0% 29% -21.0%
20% -32.3% 22% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$17 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses64 / 47
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)111 / 113
History coverage8d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day28.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? Yes 52¢ 92¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+78%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 36¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 32 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 +10%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 25 $25 +$22 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $56 +$36 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$29 +29%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $33 −$1 -2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina to win the second half? Jun 24 $15 +$14 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $41 +$57 +141%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $61 +$26 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$5 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $60 −$29 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$3 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 24 $30 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $31 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $30 +$5 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $32 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 24 $61 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 24 $37 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$5 +37%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$9 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 24 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 24 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 24 $7 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 24 $46 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 24 $9 −$2 -24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 33m
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 1h
Brazil to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $47 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $92 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 38¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $2 2h
Brazil to win the second half? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 97¢ $130 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 3h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 60¢ $30 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 29¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 24¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $31 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.52 · official $27.75 (match) · 242 history records