Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd33c…a724 crypto 761 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$62 (+0%) realized −$31 · open +$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate61%428W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day33.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$5,506now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$72
14 days−$85
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$273
other 30% +$91
world 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -7.7% -16.4% 59% 56% -19.2%
≤30d 129 -8.3% -17.0% 65% 57% -7.4%
≤90d 699 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 50% -11.6%
all 699 -7.0% -15.8% 61% 50% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 50% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 39% -20.0%
15% -31.2% 31% -27.8%
20% -38.0% 25% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$12 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$5,506
Realized−$31
Unrealized+$93
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses428 / 271
Open positions62
Markets (closed)699 / 761
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$25
Trades / day33.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 62 History 699 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 90¢ $1,200 $1,281 +$81 (+7%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 70¢ 72¢ $402 $418 +$16 (+4%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $265 $264 −$2 (-1%)
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $270 $258 −$12 (-4%)
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 84¢ $190 $200 +$11 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $176 $200 +$24 (+13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $115 $190 +$75 (+66%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $203 $165 −$38 (-19%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 41¢ 40¢ $157 $150 −$7 (-4%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $147 $148 +$1 (+1%)
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $141 $139 −$2 (-1%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 94¢ $124 $136 +$11 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $146 $124 −$22 (-15%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 52¢ $110 $116 +$5 (+5%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 88¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $97 $93 −$3 (-3%)
Will England be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $74 $93 +$19 (+26%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $105 $93 −$13 (-12%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $72 $90 +$18 (+24%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 62¢ 68¢ $81 $89 +$8 (+10%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 69¢ $37 $83 +$46 (+124%)
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $74 $76 +$2 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $104 $69 −$35 (-34%)
Will Belgium finish second in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 66¢ 50¢ $79 $61 −$19 (-23%)
Will Portugal win the World Cup? No 89¢ 91¢ $59 $60 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET Jun 26 $82 −$81 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$11 +54%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 26 $54 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET Jun 26 $66 +$14 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET Jun 26 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$12 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET Jun 26 $29 −$29 -98%
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $6 +$8 +140%
Will Switzerland finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup G Jun 24 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7AM ET Jun 24 $21 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6AM ET Jun 24 $47 +$19 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5AM ET Jun 24 $22 +$14 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3AM ET Jun 24 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10PM ET Jun 24 $38 +$15 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$7 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7AM ET Jun 23 $23 +$10 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1AM ET Jun 23 $3 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11PM ET Jun 23 $43 +$5 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10PM ET Jun 23 $6 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9PM ET Jun 23 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Australia finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Gro Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Canada finish second in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 19 $8 −$8 -99%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$2 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $13 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $27 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 1h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $26 1h
Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 1h
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 1h
Will France reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $16 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 7h
Will the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion be a nation from Group I? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 10h
Will France win the World Cup? BUY No 80¢ $5 10h
Will England be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,505.89 · official $5,505.99 (match) · 3500 history records