Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

D3 0xd33c…2ab5 culture 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 314d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$13,524 (+97%) realized +$13,589 · open −$65

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +177% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +141% what you keep after slip

Net edge+141%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%4W / 7L

Drawdown9%max

Avg bet$1,073per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Kalshi-fit77%portable

Net worth$2,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$275

7 days+$11,692

14 days+$11,692

30 days+$11,692

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+150.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+124.8%	+103.4%	100%	100%	+162.4%
≤30d	2	+124.8%	+103.4%	100%	100%	+162.4%
≤90d	2	+124.8%	+103.4%	100%	100%	+162.4%
all	11	+177.3%	+150.9%	36%	36%	+73.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+150.9%	36%	+73.3%
10%	+126.9%	36%	+56.8%
15%	+105.0%	18%	+41.6%
20%	+84.9%	18%	+27.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 74% · top 2 98% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +190% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +177% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$3,880 vs −$295 · ×13.13 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×7.5 per $1 lost it wins $7.5

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

314d coverage

Net worth$2,204

Realized+$13,589

Unrealized−$65

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses4 / 7

Open positions2

Markets (closed)11 / 13

History coverage314d

Avg bet$1,073

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown9%

Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 11 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	23¢	23¢	$1,269	$1,266	−$3 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$1,000	$938	−$62 (-6%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 28	$1,030	+$275	+27%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	Jun 21	$5,123	+$11,417	+223%
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?	Mar 08	$99	−$99	-100%
Lions vs. Vikings	Dec 25	$100	−$1	-1%
Cowboys vs. Commanders	Dec 25	$100	−$1	-1%
Broncos vs. Chiefs	Dec 25	$118	−$1	-1%
Maduro out in 2025?	Dec 24	$4,131	−$1,131	-27%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Oct 10	$24	+$8	+32%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Oct 09	$50	+$3,821	+7642%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	Oct 09	$809	−$809	-100%
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?	Aug 18	$26	−$26	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	23¢	$1,298	1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$1,304	16h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	1¢	$1,030	6d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	BUY Yes	8¢	$1,046	6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	SELL Yes	98¢	$16,540	6d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	47¢	$9	38d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	46¢	$2,497	38d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	16¢	$342	100d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele	BUY Yes	24¢	$2,275	105d
Will PH win the most seats in the 2026 Colombian Senate election?	BUY No	14¢	$99	111d
Lions vs. Vikings	SELL Lions	76¢	$99	185d
Cowboys vs. Commanders	SELL Cowboys	79¢	$99	185d
Broncos vs. Chiefs	SELL Broncos	88¢	$117	185d
Broncos vs. Chiefs	BUY Broncos	89¢	$118	185d
Cowboys vs. Commanders	BUY Cowboys	80¢	$100	185d
Lions vs. Vikings	BUY Lions	77¢	$100	185d
Maduro out in 2025?	SELL Yes	3¢	$318	186d
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY Yes	26¢	$2,682	239d
Maduro out in 2025?	SELL Yes	34¢	$2,682	239d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	SELL Yes	13¢	$31	261d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	SELL Yes	60¢	$3,871	261d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	BUY Yes	6¢	$759	262d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	BUY Yes	10¢	$24	270d
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	BUY Yes	1¢	$50	270d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?	BUY Yes	4¢	$50	270d
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY Yes	12¢	$244	293d
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY Yes	18¢	$724	301d
Maduro out in 2025?	BUY Yes	26¢	$481	304d
Will Trump and Zelenskyy hug on Monday?	BUY Yes	7¢	$26	314d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,203.66 · official $2,203.66 (match) · 35 history records