trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -36.5% | -42.5% | 0% | 0% | -42.5% |
| ≤30d | 18 | +79.4% | +62.3% | 28% | 28% | -23.6% |
| ≤90d | 20 | +69.7% | +53.6% | 30% | 30% | -21.0% |
| all | 28 | +52.7% | +38.2% | 36% | 36% | -20.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +38.2% | 36% | -20.4% |
| 10% | +25.0% | 29% | -28.0% |
| 15% | +12.9% | 21% | -35.0% |
| 20% | +1.8% | 21% | -41.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $114 | $89 | −$25 (-22%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 22 | $355 | −$130 | -36% |
| Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? | Jun 11 | $89 | −$88 | -99% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 08 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET | Jun 08 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026? | Jun 02 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? | Jun 01 | $25 | −$25 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap | Jun 01 | $186 | −$186 | -100% |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? | May 31 | $52 | +$18 | +35% |
| Will a team from France be the 2026 Champions League winner? | May 30 | $101 | +$71 | +70% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 30 | $3 | +$2 | +70% |
| Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? | May 28 | $50 | −$24 | -48% |
| Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | May 26 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? | May 25 | $296 | −$119 | -40% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? | May 25 | $15 | +$17 | +111% |
| Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? | May 25 | $100 | −$98 | -98% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | May 23 | $125 | −$34 | -27% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | May 23 | $25 | −$2 | -8% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 15? | May 23 | $20 | +$480 | +2400% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 24? | May 22 | $135 | +$31 | +23% |
| Netanyahu out by May 31? | May 16 | $10 | −$6 | -57% |
| Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 3? | Mar 04 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? | Mar 03 | $32 | +$18 | +55% |
| Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? | Mar 03 | $39 | −$7 | -18% |
| Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $41 | −$2 | -5% |
| US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? | Mar 02 | $97 | −$12 | -13% |
| France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? | Mar 02 | $18 | +$23 | +129% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | Feb 27 | $10 | +$2 | +18% |
| Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 26, 2026? | Feb 26 | $14 | +$2 | +15% |