Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:20:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd33f…91a8
other · 25 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
+$128 +36%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$89 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$40
Realized+$89
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%
Chart Positions 2 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$89
14 days+$89
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Morocco leading at halftime? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Switzerland to win the second half? Yes 68¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$81 +784%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$14 +140%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +250%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$40 +197%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 89% +$58
sports 11% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 1h
Australia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 1h
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 3h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3h
Scotland leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 3h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $91 3h
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 12h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 12h
Switzerland to win the second half? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 12h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 12h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 12h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $0 29h
United States leading at halftime? SELL Yes 81¢ $24 30h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 33h
United States leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 33h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 33h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 36h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% +16.3%
≤30d 23 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% +16.3%
≤90d 23 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% +16.3%
all 23 +16.0% +4.9% 30% 30% +16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.9% 30% +16.3%
10% -5.1% 30% +5.2%
15% -14.3% 30% -5.0%
20% -22.7% 30% -14.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.28 · official $40.28 (match) · 34 history records