Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T13:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd345…31c5
weather · 177 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$66 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized−$66
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses87 / 66
Open positions24
Markets (closed)153 / 177
History coverage33d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day22.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 24 History 153 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$30
14 days−$53
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 35¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 33¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 32¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Yes 30¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? Yes 27¢ 30¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 38¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+44%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 15? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 24¢ 23¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 40¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+31%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 14? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on May 14? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 −$3 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +64%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 +$2 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $8 −$3 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -25%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 −$4 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $9 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -60%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$6 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 10 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 24m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 27m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 30m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 34m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 52m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 55m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on June 14? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju SELL Yes 35¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 -5.1% -14.1% 65% 22% -12.4%
≤30d 116 -5.0% -14.0% 61% 23% -13.3%
≤90d 153 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 23% -13.7%
all 153 -9.4% -18.0% 57% 23% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover22.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.0% 23% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 8% -22.0%
15% -33.0% 3% -29.5%
20% -39.6% 1% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.82 · official $66.46 (match) · 751 history records