Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D3 0xd346…4bed crypto 1856 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$605 (-8%) realized +$47 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%910W / 781L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day52.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$104
7 days+$220
14 days+$156
30 days+$242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$165
other 7% −$99
sports 0% −$14
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 338 +28.9% +16.6% 62% 62% +13.1%
≤30d 1431 +5.3% -4.7% 55% 54% -5.0%
≤90d 1691 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 53% -8.2%
all 1691 +2.5% -7.3% 54% 53% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover52.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 53% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 52% -17.0%
15% -24.2% 50% -25.0%
20% -31.7% 46% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses910 / 781
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1691 / 1856
History coverage48d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day52.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1691 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 52¢ 54¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Down 56¢ 96¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+72%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$5 +152%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$6 +86%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$6 +124%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +82%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$11 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 53m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $4 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $3 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.30 · official $12.09 (match) · 3500 history records