Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:36:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd348…0265 sports 184 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,290 (+4%) realized +$8,290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate89%164W / 20L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,223per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$458est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$419
7 days+$1,941
14 days+$1,921
30 days+$4,882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$7,659
other 0% +$213
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +1.1% -8.5% 76% 28% -6.2%
≤30d 92 -0.3% -9.8% 85% 14% -7.0%
≤90d 184 +9.1% -1.3% 89% 21% -6.4%
all 184 +9.1% -1.3% 89% 21% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.3% 21% -6.4%
10% -10.7% 10% -15.3%
15% ← realistic here -19.3% 5% -23.5%
20% -27.3% 2% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,441) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +19% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$178 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.33 per $1 lost it wins $3.33
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses164 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$458
Open positions0
Markets (closed)184 / 184
History coverage72d
Avg bet$1,223
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 184 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $16,733 −$55 -0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 17 $3,157 −$39 -1%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $4,674 +$392 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 17 $950 +$74 +8%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $104 +$47 +45%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $1,393 +$140 +10%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Jun 15 $982 +$105 +11%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 15 $230 +$36 +16%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $7,563 +$15 +0%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $865 +$114 +13%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 14 $1,681 +$5 +0%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 14 $2,433 −$33 -1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $302 −$114 -38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $1,716 +$127 +7%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $253 −$107 -42%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $29 +$1 +4%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi Jun 12 $1,405 +$132 +9%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $2,667 +$535 +20%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Thailand Jun 12 $978 +$101 +10%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $1,357 +$105 +8%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $1,266 +$92 +7%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $1,441 +$177 +12%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Thailand vs Bhutan Jun 11 $810 +$34 +4%
ACC ODI Challenger Cup: Cambodia vs Indonesia Jun 11 $340 +$60 +18%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Zimbabwe High Performance Xi vs Brazil Jun 10 $273 +$16 +6%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 10 $1,939 −$548 -28%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $8 $0 +4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs Nepal Jun 10 $1,095 +$14 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: United Arab Emirates vs Malaysia Jun 10 $2,030 +$130 +6%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $2,130 +$105 +5%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs Japan Jun 10 $46 $0 +0%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Saudi Arabia Jun 09 $2,360 +$1,157 +49%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Philippines vs United Arab Emirates Jun 09 $1,466 +$24 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Japan vs Thailand Jun 09 $10,421 −$1,479 -14%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $294 +$6 +2%
Will England win? Jun 07 $780 +$220 +28%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Hong Kong, China vs Malaysia Jun 07 $429 +$6 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Philippines Jun 07 $2,010 +$196 +10%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 07 $899 +$22 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Myanmar vs Thailand Jun 07 $1,215 +$44 +4%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Oman Jun 07 $2,334 +$84 +4%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 06 $14 −$14 -99%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bahrain vs Mongolia Jun 06 $502 −$424 -84%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 06 $194 +$6 +3%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Oman vs Saudi Arabia Jun 06 $8,858 +$278 +3%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Bhutan vs Qatar Jun 06 $299 +$5 +2%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: China vs Philippines Jun 06 $1,897 +$224 +12%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Bahrain vs Singapore Jun 05 $561 −$92 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 100¢ $12,342 56m
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 100¢ $12,222 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 98¢ $98 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 93¢ $9 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan SELL South Africa 93¢ $4,336 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 93¢ $930 2h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $2,767 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $113 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 97¢ $33 3h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 82¢ $45 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 82¢ $9 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 82¢ $1 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $104 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $34 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $107 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 83¢ $5 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan BUY South Africa 81¢ $107 6h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 99¢ $10 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $91 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $20 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $22 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $21 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $78 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $25 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $35 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $171 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $0 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $65 7h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Malawi BUY Brazil 98¢ $39 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1682 history records