Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:19:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd348…9ada politics 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,004 (+1%) realized +$1,000 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$974per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$808now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$8
14 days−$20
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$75
other 32% +$1,843
sports 12% −$766
world 2% −$2
crypto 2% +$2
culture 1% −$2
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 62 +3.8% -6.0% 5% 2% -7.7%
all 131 -7.2% -16.0% 11% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 8% -8.8%
10% -24.1% 8% -17.6%
15% -31.4% 6% -25.5%
20% -38.1% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,264) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$150 vs −$11 · ×13.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$808
Realized+$1,000
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)131 / 132
History coverage131d
Avg bet$974
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 131 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $804 $808 +$4 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 26 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 25 $2,730 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,559 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $573 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $4,097 −$4 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,029 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $3,551 −$5 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,148 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $4,460 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,233 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 04 $963 +$1 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,505 −$4 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $331 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,607 −$2 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,384 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,308 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $4,495 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,114 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,614 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 19 $1,012 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,656 −$3 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $2,044 −$2 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 08 $1,673 −$2 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $4,272 −$5 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 07 $759 +$1,858 +245%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,177 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $1,110 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,253 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,428 −$1 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $629 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $635 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 13 $1,139 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $702 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $698 $0 +0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $701 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 03 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 03 $581 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 02 $631 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 02 $594 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $432 1h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $432 3h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $573 18h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $574 20h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $321 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $322 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $356 6d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $356 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $572 6d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $573 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $349 7d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $350 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $805 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 11d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,029 11d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,146 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,235 12d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,237 12d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,253 13d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,255 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,146 13d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 14d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,315 19d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,317 19d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,231 20d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,233 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,233 20d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,235 20d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $808.00 · official $808.00 (match) · 436 history records