Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd34c…10b4 crypto 387 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,939 (-11%) realized −$3,926 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%100W / 241L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$196est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$2,566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$886
14 days−$923
30 days−$5,558
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$4,334
sports 39% −$1,040
other 6% −$524
world 0% +$331
tech 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +8.6% -1.8% 31% 31% -19.1%
≤30d 341 -16.3% -24.3% 29% 27% -26.3%
≤90d 341 -16.3% -24.3% 29% 27% -26.3%
all 341 -16.3% -24.3% 29% 27% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.3% 27% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.5% 25% -33.4%
15% -38.1% 22% -39.8%
20% -44.2% 19% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -28% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$62 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$2,566
Realized−$3,926
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses100 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$196
Open positions46
Markets (closed)341 / 387
History coverage23d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 46 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $220 $222 +$2 (+1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 54¢ $210 $212 +$2 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 50¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Over 61¢ 60¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $100 $111 +$11 (+11%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 29¢ 30¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 31¢ 32¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 50¢ 48¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+40%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 218 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$15 -94%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $76 +$33 +44%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$308 +101%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 +$251 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $10 +$7 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$115 +1115%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$115 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $265 +$382 +144%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $304 +$284 +93%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $253 −$250 -99%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 3 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 +$246 +2392%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $101 +$60 +60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $213 −$210 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $301 −$300 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $324 −$320 -99%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 57m
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 58m
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 58m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 59m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 59m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $102 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $152 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $254 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 3 Panama? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $202 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $102 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 3 DR Congo? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,565.91 · official $2,566.06 (match) · 1171 history records