Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:00:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd357…b07a other 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% $0
politics 32% −$1
tech 11% $0
crypto 5% $0
sports 5% +$1
economics 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 10 -0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 18 -0.0% -9.5% 11% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage112d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $115 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $233 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $116 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 15 $117 $0 +0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $117 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Mar 17 $117 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 14 $117 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $117 $0 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $117 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 09 $117 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $117 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 02 $117 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $115 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $115 16h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $115 11d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $116 11d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $116 22d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $116 23d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $116 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $74 26d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $5 26d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $116 34d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $116 35d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $115 38d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $115 40d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $115 41d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $115 48d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $115 49d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 68d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 69d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 69d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 69d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 69d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 69d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $117 74d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $117 74d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $117 79d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $117 80d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $117 91d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $117 91d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $117 97d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 57 history records