Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd35d…bfb7 crypto 1396 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$299 (-2%) realized −$610 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate61%853W / 542L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day60.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$110
7 days−$235
14 days−$326
30 days−$341
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$610
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 142 -15.4% -23.5% 53% 47% -23.1%
≤30d 876 -1.6% -11.0% 62% 56% -12.8%
≤90d 1395 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 56% -13.5%
all 1395 -1.1% -10.5% 61% 56% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover60.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 56% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 46% -21.7%
15% -26.9% 33% -29.3%
20% -34.0% 23% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$610
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses853 / 542
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1395 / 1396
History coverage44d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day60.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Down 62¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$10 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $23 −$18 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $18 −$11 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $43 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$9 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $33 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$9 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$7 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $22 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $35 −$12 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$4 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$14 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $13 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $29 −$17 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $12 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$10 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $9 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $29 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $43 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $16 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $33 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $13 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $9 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $9 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $25 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records