Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

D3 0xd35e…3708 crypto 22 markets active 2d ago coverage 9d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$64 (-12%) realized −$64 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$25per market

Trades / day3.7pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit59%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$69

14 days−$69

30 days−$69

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)-7.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	+1.8%	-7.9%	55%	36%	-20.7%
≤30d	22	+1.8%	-7.9%	55%	36%	-20.7%
≤90d	22	+1.8%	-7.9%	55%	36%	-20.7%
all	22	+1.8%	-7.9%	55%	36%	-20.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-7.9%	36%	-20.7%
10%	-16.7%	32%	-28.3%
15%	-24.7%	32%	-35.2%
20%	-32.1%	27%	-41.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +2% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +14% → late -11% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$13 vs −$22 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.69 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$64

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage9d

Avg bet$25

Trades / day3.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$6	−$5	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$1	+124%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$125	−$125	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Jun 15	$102	+$23	+22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$8	+146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Jun 15	$1	+$2	+185%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 15	$10	−$10	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	Jun 15	$1	−$1	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$46	−$46	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Jun 15	$5	$0	+8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$15	+$14	+90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	Jun 15	$1	$0	+2%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$79	+$5	+6%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$10	+$30	+291%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$41	+$41	+101%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 12	$20	−$20	-99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Jun 12	$1	−$1	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Jun 12	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Jun 12	$10	−$10	-100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$70	+$30	+43%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	68¢	$6	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$1	2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	93¢	$125	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	BUY Up	22¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Down	80¢	$101	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	BUY Up	17¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	BUY Up	39¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	SELL Up	82¢	$3	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	BUY Up	27¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	BUY Down	95¢	$1	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	BUY Up	92¢	$5	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET	BUY Up	98¢	$1	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	52¢	$15	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$29	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$30	3d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$40	3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	94¢	$50	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$15	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$82	4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	60¢	$20	5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$10	5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$0	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	BUY Down	15¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$1	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	BUY Up	35¢	$3	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	56¢	$5	5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	BUY Up	67¢	$5	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	49¢	$10	6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records