Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:14:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd35f…0d58 politics 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 568d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$12,736 (+11%) realized +$12,736 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate70%26W / 11L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$3,190per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 55% +$10,485
other 21% +$956
sports 14% −$166
crypto 8% +$1,428
economics 2% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -33.9% -40.2% 0% 0% -40.2%
≤30d 1 -33.9% -40.2% 0% 0% -40.2%
≤90d 1 -33.9% -40.2% 0% 0% -40.2%
all 37 -6.6% -15.5% 70% 27% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 27% +0.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 11% -9.4%
15% -31.0% 5% -18.1%
20% -37.7% 5% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% too few recent
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$4,985) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$670 vs −$429 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

568d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12,736
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses26 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage568d
Avg bet$3,190
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 −$17 -34%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 20 $6,134 −$205 -3%
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect Dec 16 $5,574 −$3,410 -61%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-e Dec 16 $1,727 +$19 +1%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 16 $3,311 +$205 +6%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $4,985 +$10 +0%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $183 +$7 +4%
Will Anca Alexandrescu finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-e Dec 07 $279 −$229 -82%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 03 $1,185 +$6 +0%
Will Romania win on 2025-11-15? Nov 15 $50 −$50 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Jun 01 $340 −$340 -100%
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal in the 2025 Champions League Final? Jun 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Will PSG win 6-1? Jun 01 $999 +$1 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 01 $10,000 +$54 +0%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 21 $11,603 +$642 +6%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 21 $7,268 +$161 +2%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? May 19 $1,942 −$18 -1%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $7,110 +$4,878 +69%
Will Dan or Simion win the diaspora vote? May 18 $307 −$185 -60%
Will George Simion win by over 18%? May 18 $1,000 +$189 +19%
Will Nicușor Dan win the second most votes in the first round of the R May 06 $3,696 +$789 +21%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Apr 07 $1,500 +$216 +14%
Will Elena Lasconi win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Feb 01 $1,000 +$7 +1%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2025 meeting? Jan 11 $2,000 +$115 +6%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 09 $3,142 +$4,882 +155%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in December? Jan 01 $1,580 +$420 +27%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in December? Jan 01 $2,010 +$139 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in December? Jan 01 $1,808 +$442 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in December? Jan 01 $4,535 +$427 +9%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 07 $10,113 +$1,182 +12%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 05 $9,911 +$998 +10%
Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 02 $4,846 +$855 +18%
Will AUR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 02 $2,236 +$195 +9%
Will USR win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 01 $5,169 +$590 +11%
Will PNL win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? Dec 01 $209 −$153 -73%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 01 $10 −$6 -64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Ilia Topuria 18¢ $34 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 26¢ $51 1h
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Demoor 99¢ $2,320 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Demoor 80¢ $624 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Demoor 90¢ $942 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Demoor 95¢ $1,323 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Demoor 94¢ $5,000 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Demoor 45¢ $100 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor SELL Tate 60¢ $720 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 86¢ $863 176d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 86¢ $171 176d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL Yes 100¢ $4,995 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,506 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $198 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $103 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $426 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $216 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $112 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $75 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $62 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $47 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $59 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $35 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $85 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $554 189d
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? BUY Yes 100¢ $499 189d
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? SELL No 100¢ $190 189d
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect SELL No 2¢ $22 189d
Will Daniel Baluta finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect SELL No 2¢ $8 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 678 history records