Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:38:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd360…2eab sports 110 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,577 (-26%) realized −$6,610 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate37%40W / 69L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$231per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$306est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,113
7 days−$4,078
14 days−$4,412
30 days−$6,703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$6,487
other 7% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -18.5% -26.3% 42% 42% -31.6%
≤30d 109 -25.2% -32.3% 37% 36% -33.7%
≤90d 109 -25.2% -32.3% 37% 36% -33.7%
all 109 -25.2% -32.3% 37% 36% -33.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 36% -33.7%
10% -38.8% 36% -40.0%
15% -44.7% 29% -45.8%
20% -50.1% 24% -51.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -40% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$206 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$6,610
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses40 / 69
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$306
Open positions1
Markets (closed)109 / 110
History coverage27d
Avg bet$231
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 64¢ 88¢ $87 $120 +$33 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 69 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $41 +$46 +114%
Oliver Tarvet vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $105 −$104 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $38 +$94 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $250 +$80 +32%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $517 −$513 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $548 −$544 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $184 −$180 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,435 +$571 +40%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $543 −$539 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $742 −$736 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $148 −$147 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 14 $114 +$45 +40%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $721 +$272 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $612 +$177 +29%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $293 +$484 +165%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $95 +$246 +259%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $21 +$48 +223%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $607 +$146 +24%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $423 −$420 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $86 −$85 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $91 +$104 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$33 +325%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $486 +$165 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $188 −$184 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $125 +$71 +57%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $218 +$141 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $258 −$253 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $73 +$45 +62%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $449 +$130 +29%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $69 −$67 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 11 $204 −$200 -98%
Daniil Medvedev vs. Thijs Boogaard: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $524 −$520 -99%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $33 −$32 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $579 +$141 +24%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $276 −$270 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 10 $165 −$162 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $208 −$204 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $965 +$399 +41%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau Jun 10 $24 −$24 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $554 −$550 -99%
Argentina vs. Iceland: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $171 −$168 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 09 $201 −$197 -98%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $196 +$129 +66%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $181 −$177 -98%
Will Philippines win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $389 +$183 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 64¢ $88 1h
Oliver Tarvet vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 62¢ $105 7h
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 46¢ $41 7h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $38 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Japan 100¢ $330 18h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 74¢ $517 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $548 18h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $184 18h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Japan 75¢ $250 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $2,006 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1,435 20h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $543 21h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $742 25h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 75¢ $148 28h
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Roberto Bautista Agut 36¢ $42 34h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Lorenzo Sonego 61¢ $81 34h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $778 43h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $721 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $341 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Qatar 99¢ $69 43h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $753 43h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 30¢ $21 44h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 75¢ $423 45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 80¢ $607 45h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $612 46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $95 46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $293 46h
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) BUY Knicks 71¢ $114 47h
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 56¢ $86 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $120.30 · official $120.30 (match) · 165 history records