Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:50:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd360…5848 other 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$61 (+0%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate23%15W / 51L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 67% −$14
other 15% +$5
politics 12% −$6
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$75
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -7.2% -16.0% 14% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 54 +5.2% -4.8% 22% 15% -8.1%
all 66 +4.1% -5.8% 23% 12% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 12% -9.3%
10% -14.8% 12% -17.9%
15% -23.0% 12% -25.9%
20% -30.6% 11% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$3 · ×4.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses15 / 51
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage599d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $79 $79 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $180 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 05 $69 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $28 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 27 $24 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $27 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $34 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $28 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $179 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $151 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $157 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $311 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$8 +129%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 08 $144 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $146 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $310 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $146 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 26 $151 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $158 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 25 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $148 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $144 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $153 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 22 $157 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $150 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $145 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $146 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $154 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 14 $145 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $145 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $12 +$9 +72%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $10 +$5 +46%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $9 +$6 +75%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 02 $23 −$23 -100%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Apr 02 $42 −$42 -100%
Flyers vs. Capitals Apr 02 $23 +$19 +82%
Heat vs. Pacers Mar 31 $26 +$93 +354%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $30 3h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $79 4d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 4d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $27 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $32 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $17 14d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $17 14d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $28 21d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $28 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $24 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $24 22d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 23d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $27 23d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $69 26d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $34 27d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $34 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 28d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 28d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 50¢ $10 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $23 30d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.85 · official $78.85 (match) · 265 history records