Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:28:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd360…914e crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%73W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day27.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$54
14 days−$70
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -9.5% -18.1% 62% 50% -20.1%
≤30d 119 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 52% -9.4%
≤90d 119 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 52% -9.4%
all 119 -5.6% -14.6% 61% 52% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 52% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 34% -18.1%
15% -30.3% 18% -26.0%
20% -37.1% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses73 / 46
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage16d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day27.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$13 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 09 $35 +$28 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$15 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$6 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 09 $43 +$11 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 09 $29 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$16 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 09 $28 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 09 $13 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 09 $12 +$3 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $19 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 01 $11 −$8 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 01 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 01 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 01 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 01 $12 +$7 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 01 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 01 $50 −$49 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 01 $17 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 01 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 01 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 01 $53 +$31 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 01 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 01 $50 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 01 $35 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 01 $7 +$16 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 01 $28 −$21 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 01 $140 −$34 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 01 $47 +$24 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 01 $93 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 01 $46 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 01 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 01 $93 +$25 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 01 $48 +$75 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 01 $60 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 01 $38 +$2 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 559 history records