Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:42:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd361…353a
weather · 1352 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$255 -30%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses97 / 1230
Open positions25
Markets (closed)1327 / 1352
History coverage53d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day45.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 25 History 1327 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 90¢ $3 $9 +$6 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? Yes 79¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 49¢ 10¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+52%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? Yes 11¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-89%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? Yes 18¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-97%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-93%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 13 $1 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on May 18? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ma May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on May 13? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 13? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 13? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 14? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 14? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 14? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 26°C on May 16? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ma May 17 $0 $0 +109%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 17? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on May 17? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ma May 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ma May 17 $1 $0 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 17? May 17 $2 −$1 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on May 17? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 17? May 16 $2 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on May 17? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 17? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 16? May 16 $0 +$9 +1701%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 84°F or higher on May May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 17? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 16? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on May 17? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on May 17? May 16 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 0m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 27m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 79¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $0 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-50.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -65.0% -68.3% 33% 0% -73.6%
≤30d 87 -38.5% -44.4% 8% 7% -39.9%
≤90d 1327 -45.1% -50.4% 7% 7% -18.9%
all 1327 -45.1% -50.4% 7% 7% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover45.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -50.4% 7% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -55.1% 7% -26.6%
15% -59.5% 7% -33.7%
20% -63.4% 6% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.50 · official $22.50 (match) · 3500 history records