Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:32:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd362…9bc4 politics 158 markets active 7d ago coverage 88d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,648 (+33%) realized +$3,658 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate56%87W / 69L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day39.6pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$112now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 88d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$35
politics 20% +$26
world 6% +$23
tech 5% +$5
economics 4% $0
culture 2% +$10
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -0.6% -10.1% 50% 0% -9.1%
all 156 +5.0% -5.0% 56% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.0% 8% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -14.1% 6% -17.2%
15% -22.4% 5% -25.2%
20% -30.0% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
11.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.76 per $1 lost it wins $5.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$112
Realized+$3,658
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses87 / 69
Open positions13
Markets (closed)156 / 158
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$70
Trades / day39.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? No 86¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-61%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-64%)
Will the Union for Central African Renewal win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No 100¢ 99¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-0%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-76%)
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? No 97¢ 99¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? No 96¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-98%)
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Apr 11 $760 +$5 +1%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 24-27, 2026? Apr 11 $86 −$1 -1%
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele Apr 01 $4 $0 -2%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Mar 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e Mar 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? Mar 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Mar 29 $19 $0 +0%
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima Mar 29 $7 $0 -6%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? Mar 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Mar 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Mar 28 $24 +$8 +34%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $104 +$15 +14%
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial Mar 28 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? Mar 28 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $76 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 28 $1 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 28 $207 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Mar 28 $162 +$1 +1%
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? Mar 28 $199 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Mar 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $290 −$8 -3%
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam Mar 28 $0 $0 -4%
Will Scottish National Party win the most seats in the 2026 Scottish P Mar 28 $0 $0 +4%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Mar 28 $21 $0 -0%
Military action against Iran ends on March 29, 2026? Mar 28 $63 $0 +0%
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Mar 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 28 $139 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $728 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $1,443 +$2 +0%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 28 $84 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 28 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2 Mar 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Mar 28 $19 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Mar 28 $315 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 28 $9 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? Mar 28 $16 +$3 +20%
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Mar 28 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 28 $132 −$1 -1%
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Mar 28 $30 $0 -2%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $93 $0 -0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $111 $0 +0%
Will there be 5 or fewer US strikes on Somalia in March 2026? Mar 28 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the DHS shutdown end between March 28-31, 2026? Mar 28 $65 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $126 $0 +0%
Will Jeff Bezos be richest person on December 31? Mar 28 $10 $0 -1%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 28 $216 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $110 6d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 88d
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 43¢ $1 88d
Will Meituan have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 89d
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 43¢ $3 89d
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary ele SELL No 43¢ $1 89d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $1 90d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 97¢ $4 90d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec SELL No 96¢ $3 90d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec SELL No 96¢ $6 90d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e SELL No 89¢ $4 90d
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 95¢ $8 91d
Will the US strike 14 countries in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 92d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 92d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 92d
Will Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican prima SELL No 68¢ $7 92d
Will Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 96¢ $2 92d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? SELL No 99¢ $0 92d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL No 98¢ $4 92d
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $0 92d
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2 92d
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $8 92d
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SX? SELL No 99¢ $6 92d
Will Park Soo-hyun win the 2026 Chungcheongnam Province gubernatorial SELL No 81¢ $8 92d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding on March 31? SELL No 98¢ $6 92d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $10 92d
Will Israel strike 6 countries in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $9 92d
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $5 92d
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the e SELL No 89¢ $5 92d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $10 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.40 · official $111.12 · 3500 history records