Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:47:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd364…2778 crypto 485 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%275W / 210L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 35% −$37
crypto 35% −$143
other 31% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 59% -8.9%
≤30d 66 -11.1% -19.6% 59% 59% -8.9%
≤90d 80 -13.2% -21.5% 58% 56% -18.0%
all 485 -8.1% -16.9% 57% 42% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 42% -9.5%
10% -24.8% 31% -18.2%
15% -32.1% 21% -26.1%
20% -38.8% 14% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses275 / 210
Open positions0
Markets (closed)485 / 485
History coverage142d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 485 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$10 +49%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +38%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +27%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +41%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 +$1 +62%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$7 +69%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -29%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -55%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +49%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +44%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +33%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +54%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +48%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +46%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +45%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $4 +$3 +68%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +35%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 22 $3 +$2 +69%
BNB Up or Down - June 22, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +40%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $1 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $3 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $2 3h
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $17 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $3 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $3 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $1 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 58¢ $1 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 9h
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $1 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1342 history records