trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 15 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 33% | 7% | -9.4% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +3.4% | -6.5% | 33% | 7% | -9.4% |
| all | 27 | +1.7% | -7.9% | 44% | 4% | -9.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.9% | 4% | -9.7% |
| 10% | -16.8% | 4% | -18.3% |
| 15% | -24.8% | 4% | -26.2% |
| 20% | -32.2% | 4% | -33.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $43 | $43 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 23 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 22 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by June 30? | Jun 08 | $45 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 07 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | Jun 06 | $43 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | Jun 05 | $46 | $0 | +1% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 05 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 05 | $48 | $0 | -1% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | Jun 05 | $43 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | Jun 04 | $87 | −$1 | -1% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 29 | $47 | $0 | +1% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 29 | $6 | −$1 | -9% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 28 | $69 | +$2 | +2% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 26 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? | Dec 15 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 9-12%? | Jun 24 | $10 | +$1 | +6% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? | May 07 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the AFD be part of the next German government? | Apr 20 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the SPD be part of the next German government? | Apr 19 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? | Apr 17 | $11 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut between $200-250b in federal spending in 2025? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 30 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 25 | $13 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? | Mar 21 | $15 | −$2 | -16% |