Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:07:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd369…00e4 crypto 69 markets active 3d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+1%) realized +$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%32W / 35L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$15
14 days+$51
30 days+$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 53% +$11
other 43% +$59
sports 4% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -9.6% -18.2% 46% 44% -11.8%
≤30d 67 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 46% -4.6%
≤90d 67 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 46% -4.6%
all 67 -2.0% -11.3% 48% 46% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 46% -4.6%
10% -19.8% 43% -13.7%
15% -27.6% 42% -22.0%
20% -34.7% 36% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses32 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)67 / 69
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 67 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 21 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$8 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 +$6 +64%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $4 −$2 -52%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $6 +$7 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$28 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$14 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$24 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$13 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$15 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $15 +$24 +156%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$15 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$12 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -96%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$13 +420%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$9 +114%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $62 +$24 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $3 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 AND Spain vs. Saudi Arabi BUY 32¢ $20 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $25 4d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $2 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 4d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $2 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $9 5d
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 BUY Over 26¢ $4 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 10¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $31 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records