Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T16:03:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd369…9b9b sports 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 227d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$751 (-11%) realized −$754 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate65%86W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$131
7 days−$336
14 days−$310
30 days−$310
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$645
other 32% −$74
world 10% −$86
crypto 8% +$163
politics 4% −$83
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 66 -8.6% -17.3% 64% 62% -28.8%
≤30d 70 -5.2% -14.3% 66% 64% -26.6%
≤90d 92 -8.2% -16.9% 66% 60% -22.5%
all 133 -9.7% -18.3% 65% 57% -19.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 57% -19.4%
10% -26.1% 48% -27.1%
15% -33.2% 31% -34.1%
20% -39.8% 18% -40.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$43 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

227d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$754
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses86 / 47
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage227d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Walton (+1.5) Walton 65¢ 67¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) Jun 22 $60 +$39 +64%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $29 +$7 +24%
Set Handicap: Glinka (-1.5) vs Coppejans (+1.5) Jun 22 $17 +$7 +40%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $37 −$37 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 22 $8 +$9 +108%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 22 $24 −$24 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) Jun 21 $19 +$8 +41%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $19 +$9 +48%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $19 +$10 +52%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $19 +$11 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $19 +$13 +67%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) Jun 20 $28 −$28 -100%
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) Jun 20 $18 +$7 +36%
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) Jun 20 $19 +$11 +60%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $19 +$10 +55%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $38 +$23 +61%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $19 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $14 +$4 +29%
Set Handicap: Li (-1.5) vs Golubic (+1.5) Jun 19 $12 +$5 +41%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Set Handicap: Cerundolo (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5) Jun 19 $19 +$9 +49%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Set Handicap: Pegula (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs L1ga Team (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs Jun 19 $211 −$211 -100%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Talia Gibson Jun 19 $19 +$12 +64%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Shelton (+1.5) Jun 19 $19 +$10 +51%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $19 +$6 +29%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $19 +$5 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $8 +$6 +76%
Set Handicap: Humbert (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$7 +35%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $19 +$8 +41%
Set Handicap: Collignon (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 18 $19 +$6 +30%
Set Handicap: Rybakina (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) Jun 18 $11 +$16 +139%
Set Handicap: Muchova (-1.5) vs Keys (+1.5) Jun 18 $21 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set Handicap: Kyrgios (-1.5) vs Walton (+1.5) BUY Walton 65¢ $99 1h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) SELL Sierra 100¢ $99 1h
Set Handicap: Zheng (-1.5) vs Sierra (+1.5) BUY Sierra 60¢ $60 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 92¢ $36 4h
Set Handicap: Glinka (-1.5) vs Coppejans (+1.5) SELL Coppejans 100¢ $24 4h
Set Handicap: Glinka (-1.5) vs Coppejans (+1.5) BUY Coppejans 71¢ $17 6h
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 64¢ $37 8h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $5 26h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 67¢ $19 26h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $6 31h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $19 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 56¢ $16 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $8 31h
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Tommy Paul 68¢ $15 32h
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova BUY Jessica Pegula 61¢ $19 32h
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Navarro (+1.5) BUY Navarro 70¢ $19 32h
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5) BUY Altmaier 60¢ $19 47h
Set Handicap: Paul (-1.5) vs Humbert (+1.5) BUY Paul 73¢ $18 2d
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 70¢ $9 2d
Set Handicap: Sabalenka (-1.5) vs Pegula (+1.5) BUY Pegula 62¢ $19 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $19 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $19 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $19 2d
Set Handicap: Bouzkova (-1.5) vs Pliskova (+1.5) BUY Pliskova 71¢ $19 2d
Set Handicap: Noskova (-1.5) vs Eala (+1.5) BUY Eala 66¢ $19 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $18 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.32 · official $101.32 (match) · 291 history records