Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd36e…4b50 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate86%12W / 2L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$21
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$37
politics 42% +$6
sports 1% −$17
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -23.3% -30.6% 75% 0% -46.7%
≤90d 8 -7.1% -16.0% 88% 12% -24.8%
all 14 -3.5% -12.7% 86% 7% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 7% -8.9%
10% -21.0% 7% -17.7%
15% -28.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.7% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$11 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses12 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage164d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? No 99¢ 98¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 12 $42 −$21 -50%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 4? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 21? May 21 $8 $0 +4%
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $472.50 Week of May 11 2026? May 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12? May 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on April 28? May 11 $14 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5 May 11 $12 +$4 +32%
Will Trump's remarks in Rome, GA not air? Feb 19 $843 +$5 +1%
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? Jan 28 $952 +$1 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 28 $951 −$1 -0%
OKX IPO in 2026? Jan 08 $520 +$20 +4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 07 $187 +$3 +1%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Jan 07 $702 +$16 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $31 1h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 98¢ $2 7d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) SELL Brazil 98¢ $39 7d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 16d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 98¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 21? BUY No 96¢ $8 29d
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $472.50 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 96¢ $8 35d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $13 38d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 90°F or higher on April 28? BUY No 100¢ $14 53d
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 76¢ $12 64d
Will Trump's remarks in Rome, GA not air? SELL No 98¢ $848 119d
Will Trump's remarks in Rome, GA not air? BUY No 97¢ $843 119d
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? SELL No 95¢ $953 142d
Will Yodchanan Wongsawat be the next prime minister of Thailand? BUY No 95¢ $952 142d
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 97¢ $950 142d
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $951 142d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $540 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $39 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $71 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $55 162d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 162d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $517 162d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 162d
US strike on Cuba by March 31? SELL No 92¢ $718 162d
US strike on Cuba by March 31? BUY No 90¢ $702 164d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $99 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.90 · official $30.90 (match) · 47 history records