Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd371…8f17 sports 298 markets active 2h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-4%) realized −$90 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate56%164W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$55
14 days−$38
30 days−$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$79
crypto 18% −$11
weather 10% −$12
other 1% −$10
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -27.7% -34.6% 42% 38% -24.1%
≤30d 98 -0.4% -9.9% 46% 41% -17.7%
≤90d 225 +1.2% -8.5% 52% 47% -13.2%
all 295 +0.3% -9.3% 56% 49% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 49% -14.4%
10% -17.9% 40% -22.6%
15% -25.9% 29% -30.0%
20% -33.1% 13% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses164 / 131
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)295 / 298
History coverage124d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu Jiaqi Wang 56¢ 73¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+30%)
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang Sakura Hosogi 58¢ 56¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Aishi Das Aishi Das 39¢ 35¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $20 +$8 +39%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 +$1 +15%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $5 $0 +9%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Wuning: Ye Chen vs Geun Jun Kim Jun 25 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan Jun 25 $10 +$2 +22%
ITF Wuning: Xirui Han vs Moerani Bouzige Jun 25 $5 +$1 +18%
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Mousa Ta'mari: 1+ shots Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 24 $5 +$5 +107%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $1 $0 +18%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $5 $0 -3%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $16 +$6 +36%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $1 −$1 -84%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $57 +$2 +4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -96%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 +$1 +26%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -92%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 +$2 +35%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 +$3 +331%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +118%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $1 +$1 +146%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +25%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $2 −$1 -69%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -84%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1 $0 +36%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $5 +$5 +107%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $12 +$5 +38%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$3 +34%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 −$4 -82%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$1 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 82¢ $28 1h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 58¢ $20 1h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Aishi Das BUY Aishi Das 39¢ $20 4h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Aishi Das SELL Hikaru Sato 61¢ $19 4h
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Ya Yi Yang BUY Sakura Hosogi 58¢ $20 4h
ITF Maanshan: Jiaqi Wang vs Chenting Zhu BUY Jiaqi Wang 56¢ $20 4h
ITF Taipei: Hikaru Sato vs Aishi Das BUY Hikaru Sato 63¢ $20 4h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $12 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 5h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 43¢ $6 6h
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 6h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 7h
ITF Wuning: Ye Chen vs Geun Jun Kim SELL Ye Chen 88¢ $6 24h
ITF Wuning: Ye Chen vs Geun Jun Kim BUY Ye Chen 70¢ $5 24h
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan SELL Evialina Laskevich 69¢ $5 25h
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan BUY Evialina Laskevich 66¢ $5 25h
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan SELL Evialina Laskevich 61¢ $7 25h
ITF Maanshan: Evialina Laskevich vs I Wen Wan BUY Evialina Laskevich 42¢ $5 25h
ITF Wuning: Xirui Han vs Moerani Bouzige SELL Xirui Han 43¢ $6 25h
ITF Wuning: Xirui Han vs Moerani Bouzige BUY Xirui Han 35¢ $5 26h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 27h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $11 31h
Neymar Jr: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $1 31h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals BUY Yes 47¢ $5 31h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $1 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 75¢ $1 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 SELL Under 1¢ $0 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.50 · official $57.33 · 694 history records