Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:29:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd372…04be weather 584 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$370 (+1%) realized +$370 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate73%433W / 164L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$839
7 days−$818
14 days−$562
30 days−$689
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 96% +$866
other 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 26% -26.3%
≤30d 273 -3.1% -12.3% 66% 23% -12.8%
≤90d 597 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 17% -9.5%
all 597 -1.7% -11.0% 73% 17% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 17% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 12% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 9% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$12 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$370
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses433 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)597 / 584
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$87
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 597 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 30? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27? Jun 18 $487 −$487 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 9? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 1? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on April 3? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 18°C on April 8? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27? Jun 18 $339 −$339 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 14? Jun 18 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on April 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on April 7? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $0 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $75 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $58 +$12 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $65 +$18 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $8 −$2 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $23 +$2 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $15 +$9 +57%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 16 $107 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $96 −$1 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $14 +$10 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $46 +$10 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$4 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $159 +$9 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $49 −$4 -9%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $128 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $53 −$38 -72%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 22¢ $2 3m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 6m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 19m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 58¢ $6 24m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 87¢ $12 27m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 87¢ $59 28m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 66¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 2¢ $0 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 25¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 26¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 9¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 53¢ $6 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 31¢ $2 19h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 55¢ $3 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? SELL No 47¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY No 39¢ $3 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 81¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 89¢ $18 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records