Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D3 0xd37a…85ef other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$129 (-7%) realized +$66 · open −$195
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%18W / 17L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$524now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days−$38
14 days+$7
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$48
politics 17% −$40
sports 14% +$5
crypto 6% −$12
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +111.1% +91.0% 27% 27% -18.7%
≤30d 32 +42.8% +29.2% 50% 41% +0.7%
≤90d 35 +40.6% +27.2% 51% 43% +0.3%
all 35 +40.6% +27.2% 51% 43% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +27.2% 43% +0.3%
10% +15.0% 40% -9.3%
15% +3.9% 40% -18.1%
20% -6.3% 37% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$18 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$524
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$195
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses18 / 17
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions12
Markets (closed)35 / 53
History coverage126d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No 45¢ 44¢ $146 $145 −$1 (-0%)
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 16¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-18%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $90 $54 −$36 (-40%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 40¢ $50 $40 −$10 (-19%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 25¢ 17¢ $60 $40 −$20 (-33%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $44 $37 −$7 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $115 $25 −$90 (-79%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $14 $10 −$4 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $26 +$30 +116%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $113 −$13 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- Jun 15 $3 +$47 +1521%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$1 -4%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $42 +$46 +110%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $18 −$2 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $41 +$28 +70%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 +$42 +165%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $20 +$17 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $20 +$19 +95%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $41 +$39 +97%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $41 +$46 +114%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $36 +$32 +90%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $91 +$36 +40%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
BNB Up or Down - May 22, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 23 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 23 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 23 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 23 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 23 $7 −$2 -28%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 20 $2 −$2 -99%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 20 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $21 1h
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 20¢ $72 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $55 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 2d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $31 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $99 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 32¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $29 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY 16¢ $41 3d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $41 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 4d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL No 46¢ $5 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 33¢ $26 4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 35¢ $25 4d
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 33¢ $36 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 5d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $30 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 28¢ $20 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $17 6d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $523.82 · official $523.82 (match) · 237 history records