Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D3 0xd37e…5411 sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$844 (+19%) realized +$798 · open +$46
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate40%58W / 87L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$211now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$69
14 days−$9
30 days+$529
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% +$385
sports 27% −$367
world 25% +$685
crypto 16% +$189
tech 1% −$13
politics 1% −$35
culture 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -76.6% -78.8% 0% 0% -63.5%
≤30d 37 +36.5% +23.5% 38% 35% +25.8%
≤90d 92 +13.1% +2.3% 39% 37% +0.4%
all 145 +10.5% -0.1% 40% 37% +7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 37% +7.3%
10% -9.6% 36% -2.9%
15% -18.4% 34% -12.3%
20% -26.4% 33% -20.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$19 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.48 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$211
Realized+$798
Unrealized+$46
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses58 / 87
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions12
Markets (closed)145 / 158
History coverage176d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $37 +$12 (+50%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $36 +$12 (+47%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $38 $36 −$2 (-6%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $13 $23 +$9 (+71%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $19 −$6 (-25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $13 $17 +$4 (+29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+12%)
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+311%)
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? Yes 10¢ 24¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+140%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+186%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+65%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $50 −$3 -6%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $46 −$46 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $12 +$2 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $5 +$110 +2410%
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 04 $2 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $434 +$243 +56%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $126 +$221 +175%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $35 −$35 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $15 +$33 +226%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $10 $0 +2%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 30 $93 −$72 -77%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $49 +$89 +183%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $109 +$122 +113%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $4 +$8 +206%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $73 +$38 +52%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 20 $126 −$77 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 17 $1 +$1 +101%
XRP Up or Down - May 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Chennai Super Kings May 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $35 −$35 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Delhi Capitals May 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans May 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings May 06 $100 −$100 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants May 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings May 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 03 $19 +$25 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Cabo Verde to score first vs. Spain? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 15¢ $1 21h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 15¢ $10 21h
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 32¢ $10 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 37¢ $47 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $50 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 19¢ $9 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? BUY No 20¢ $36 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $12 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 24¢ $11 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 7¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 12¢ $2 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 11¢ $3 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-06? BUY No 53¢ $6 8d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 39¢ $10 9d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 27¢ $4 10d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 43¢ $8 10d
Will Hong Kong SAR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 5¢ $2 10d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? BUY No 43¢ $5 10d
Will France vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-04? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.35 · official $222.45 · 509 history records