Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:15:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd37e…c729 politics 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$6,392 (+26%) realized +$6,392 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate64%27W / 15L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$595per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,697
7 days+$1,697
14 days+$1,697
30 days+$1,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$7,562
politics 16% −$83
crypto 7% +$1,697
other 5% −$1,070
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤30d 1 +93.2% +74.8% 100% 100% +74.8%
≤90d 4 +22.5% +10.9% 50% 25% +73.8%
all 42 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 5% +19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.2% 5% +19.8%
10% -20.6% 5% +8.3%
15% -28.3% 5% -2.1%
20% -35.3% 5% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +32% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$347 vs −$96 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.48 per $1 lost it wins $7.48
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,392
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses27 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage612d
Avg bet$595
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $1,820 +$1,697 +93%
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? May 05 $4 $0 -4%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 05 $13 $0 -2%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 16 $5 $0 +3%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech v Feb 14 $10,154 +$7,660 +75%
Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerlan Feb 13 $19 $0 -2%
Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March Feb 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards Feb 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? Feb 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? Feb 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Jan 16 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? Nov 25 $1 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Nov 15 $5 $0 +5%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 19 $5 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 19 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 23 $20 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? Jul 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? Jul 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jun 25 $5 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 15? Mar 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Olga Sustanova win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration? Feb 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 11 $5,754 −$6 -0%
Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? Jan 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Sporting CP win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 09 $10 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Suns Dec 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after December 2024 meeting? Dec 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Iowa Presidential Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Connecticut Presidential Elect Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win New Jersey Presidential Electi Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Maryland US Senate Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win US Michigan Senate Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Alaska Presidential Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Montana US Senate Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Wisconsin US Senate Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Missouri Presidential Election Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will a candidate from another party win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will any other Democrat Politician win the popular vote in the 2024 Pr Oct 13 $1,893 −$2 -0%
Will Dinamo Zagreb win the UEFA Champions League? Oct 13 $1,895 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama be D-nom for VP on Election Day? Oct 13 $1,897 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1,816 1h
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? SELL Yes 79¢ $4 43d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $13 43d
Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $4 62d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $5 89d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $13 118d
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships, Qualification: Magdalena Frech v BUY Gracheva 57¢ $10,154 123d
Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerlan SELL Yes 92¢ $18 124d
Will the Cash initiative or counter-proposal be approved in Switzerlan BUY Yes 94¢ $19 124d
Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March SELL No 97¢ $39 124d
Will the Climate fund initiative be approved in Switzerland’s 8 March BUY No 98¢ $39 124d
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? BUY Yes 72¢ $17 124d
Will the government shutdown last 10 days or more? BUY Yes 79¢ $62 124d
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,070 151d
Will Scott Turner be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $4 183d
Will Wicked: For Good win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards BUY No 100¢ $1 204d
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase November 11-17? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 214d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 241d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $15 298d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 298d
Bitcoin Up or Down on July 14? BUY Up 98¢ $5 337d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 339d
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 346d
Will Solana dip to $80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 356d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after March 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $15 457d
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 15? BUY No 100¢ $15 480d
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? SELL No 100¢ $5,748 521d
Will Matthew Stafford win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? BUY No 100¢ $5,754 521d
Will Vladimir Putin attend presidential inauguration? BUY No 100¢ $10 524d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records