Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd37f…b107 sports 20 markets active 4h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,814 (-11%) realized −$3,659 · open +$845
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%10W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,257per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$304est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,325now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$2,731
other 9% +$845
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -8.7% -17.4% 0% 0% -17.4%
≤90d 18 -22.3% -29.7% 56% 44% -21.2%
all 18 -22.3% -29.7% 56% 44% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 44% -21.2%
10% -36.4% 22% -28.7%
15% -42.6% 6% -35.6%
20% -48.2% 6% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$2,013) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$261 vs −$667 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$2,325
Realized−$3,659
Unrealized+$845
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses10 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$304
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage52d
Avg bet$1,257
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ $830 $1,928 +$1,098 (+132%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $650 $397 −$253 (-39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $100 −$9 -9%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $3 +$1 +24%
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang May 27 $452 −$450 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar May 27 $450 −$440 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen May 27 $450 −$447 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch May 24 $450 +$50 +11%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $3,002 −$3,000 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Tereza Valentova vs Magda Linette May 24 $451 −$97 -21%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $3,006 +$727 +24%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 22 $2,012 +$308 +15%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings May 21 $2,013 +$316 +16%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians May 20 $2,013 +$337 +17%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giants May 19 $980 +$508 +52%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $2,547 −$831 -33%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 17 $2,958 +$40 +1%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 17 $986 +$227 +23%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Gujarat Titans May 16 $982 +$94 +10%
Jiujiang: Lanlana Tararudee vs Xinxin Yao May 08 $102 −$66 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $350 3h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,339 19d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $853 19d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 28¢ $91 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $21 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $0 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $61 23d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 30¢ $18 23d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 80¢ $3 30d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste $351 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste $74 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste $4 32d
Roland Garros WTA: Hailey Baptiste vs Xiyu Wang BUY Hailey Baptiste $22 32d
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar SELL James Duckworth 15¢ $10 32d
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar BUY James Duckworth 15¢ $14 32d
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar BUY James Duckworth 15¢ $13 32d
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar BUY James Duckworth 15¢ $412 32d
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar BUY James Duckworth 15¢ $2 32d
Roland Garros ATP: James Duckworth vs Rafael Jodar BUY James Duckworth 15¢ $9 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $112 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $20 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $61 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $17 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $20 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $14 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $5 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $27 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $20 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $63 32d
Roland Garros ATP: Nishesh Basavareddy vs Alex Michelsen BUY Nishesh Basavareddy 18¢ $18 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,325.09 · official $2,326.03 (match) · 181 history records