Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D3 0xd380…0700 crypto 102 markets active 3h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7,790 (-41%) realized −$7,609 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate28%19W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$187per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,680now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$7,497
other 26% −$202
sports 6% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-47.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 11% 11% -15.6%
≤30d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 11% 11% -15.6%
≤90d 9 -18.5% -26.3% 11% 11% -15.6%
all 67 -42.2% -47.7% 28% 21% -57.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.7% 21% -57.6%
10% -52.7% 9% -61.7%
15% -57.2% 6% -65.4%
20% -61.4% 3% -68.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -53% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -79% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$167 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$1,680
Realized−$7,609
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses19 / 48
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions10
Markets (closed)67 / 102
History coverage183d
Avg bet$187
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1,642 $1,478 −$164 (-10%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $143 $151 +$7 (+5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-82%)
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 41¢ 6¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 81¢ 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-80%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 65¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-84%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 37¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $51 −$5 -10%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -15%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $51 −$8 -16%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$5 -10%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$5 -19%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $719 +$81 +11%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$106 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Mar 01 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 01 $83 +$9 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Mar 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Mar 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Mar 01 $90 +$10 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Mar 01 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 01 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 28 $3 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Feb 28 $10 +$89 +891%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Feb 28 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Feb 28 $9 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Feb 28 $60 −$38 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Feb 28 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Feb 28 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Feb 28 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 28 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? Feb 28 $192 −$192 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Feb 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Feb 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Feb 28 $20 −$12 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Feb 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 28 $66 −$66 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $47 2h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $46 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? A BUY 1¢ $44 21h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $44 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $43 21h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 8¢ $43 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-2 BUY 2¢ $48 21h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $46 21h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $300 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $21 21h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 9¢ $103 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on BUY 11¢ $103 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Qatar win on BUY 2¢ $31 21h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Canada vs. Qa BUY 4¢ $51 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 9¢ $51 21h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 6¢ $51 21h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 21h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 2¢ $51 36h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06 BUY 4¢ $51 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $801 36h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $218 37h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 37h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY 1¢ $51 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $27 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $54 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 37h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND W BUY 1¢ $51 37h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $51 37h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 37h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,680.23 · official $2,298.79 · 569 history records