Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:44:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd380…393b crypto 594 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (232 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$416 (+1%) realized +$416 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%338W / 308L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day232.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$105
7 days−$177
14 days−$219
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (232 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 +2.9% -6.9% 49% 3% -10.8%
≤30d 646 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 3% -10.3%
≤90d 646 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 3% -10.3%
all 646 +2.1% -7.6% 52% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover232.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 3% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 1% -18.9%
15% -24.5% 1% -26.7%
20% -31.9% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$416
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses338 / 308
Open positions0
Markets (closed)646 / 594
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day232.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 646 Trades
no open positions (82 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $0 +$2 +4275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $0 +$19 +45000%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $0 +$19 +36726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $8 −$12 -149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$8 -171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $11 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $6 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $4 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $42 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records