Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd382…9835 sports 10 markets active 1d ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$369 (-55%) realized −$369 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$341
other 5% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-46.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -41.0% -46.6% 30% 30% -60.4%
≤30d 10 -41.0% -46.6% 30% 30% -60.4%
≤90d 10 -41.0% -46.6% 30% 30% -60.4%
all 10 -41.0% -46.6% 30% 30% -60.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.6% 30% -60.4%
10% -51.8% 30% -64.2%
15% -56.4% 30% -67.7%
20% -60.7% 20% -70.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -56% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -56% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$65 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$369
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $125 −$123 -99%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $89 +$36 +40%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 14 $70 −$70 -99%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $95 −$93 -98%
Will Crusaders win? Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 12 $27 −$26 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $64 −$5 -8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $41 +$22 +53%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $20 +$21 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $103 26h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $125 30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series SELL Walczaki 99¢ $125 30h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs G2 Ares (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Walczaki 70¢ $89 34h
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY SPARTA 55¢ $70 2d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY Walczaki 49¢ $95 2d
Will Crusaders win? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 4d
Will Crusaders win? BUY Yes 41¢ $23 4d
Will Crusaders win? BUY Yes 40¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 39¢ $0 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 39¢ $9 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 39¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 38¢ $3 4d
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff BUY Wanted Goons 36¢ $4 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 50¢ $59 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 53¢ $64 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Spirit 99¢ $63 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 64¢ $41 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $42 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY BetBoom Team 48¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 20 history records