Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:27:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd383…e49d crypto 565 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$215 (-4%) realized −$309 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate68%382W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day208.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$179
14 days−$309
30 days−$309
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$205
other 2% −$111
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 474 -3.7% -12.8% 71% 54% -13.1%
≤30d 564 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 52% -14.6%
≤90d 564 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 52% -14.6%
all 564 -6.2% -15.1% 68% 52% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover208.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 52% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 32% -22.8%
15% -30.6% 15% -30.2%
20% -37.4% 7% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$309
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses382 / 182
Open positions1
Markets (closed)564 / 565
History coverage10d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day208.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Down 78¢ 46¢ $15 $9 −$6 (-41%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? No 22¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 81¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Down 64¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Down 82¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 71¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 57¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Up 75¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Down 66¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$5 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 14 $18 +$8 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$5 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$4 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$5 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$3 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $4 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 20m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.90 · official $9.48 (match) · 2491 history records