Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:25:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D3 0xd385…ab9c other 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+9%) realized +$82 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate27%16W / 44L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$10
sports 47% +$56
crypto 3% −$15
finance 1% −$4
politics 1% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-31.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -16.8% -24.7% 27% 27% +0.2%
≤30d 37 -15.2% -23.3% 30% 30% +7.1%
≤90d 60 -24.3% -31.6% 27% 25% -5.7%
all 60 -24.3% -31.6% 27% 25% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.6% 25% -5.7%
10% -38.1% 25% -14.8%
15% -44.1% 23% -23.0%
20% -49.6% 22% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$7 · ×2.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$82
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses16 / 44
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions10
Markets (closed)60 / 75
History coverage45d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 64¢ 66¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+3%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-7%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$2 (-35%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? No $1 $0 −$1 (-67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $20 −$1 -7%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $20 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$25 +250%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $51 +$49 +96%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $20 +$24 +116%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $5 +$33 +649%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$11 +55%
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +194%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $89 +$39 +44%
Hamarkameratene vs. Lillestrøm SK: O/U 1.5 May 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25? May 25 $5 −$4 -70%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 25 $10 −$4 -42%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $51 +$50 +98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 10 $5 $0 +1%
Spread: Deportivo Toluca FC (-1.5) May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Everton FC 4 - 3 Manchester City FC? May 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 May 05 $5 +$8 +158%
Erling Haaland: Anytime Goalscorer May 05 $10 +$8 +83%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 4.5 May 05 $5 +$20 +388%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Everton FC 5 - 2 Manchester City FC? May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Everton FC 6 - 0 Manchester City FC? May 04 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $35 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 16¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 59¢ $10 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $25 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $3 3h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 3h
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 3h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 55¢ $10 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will S BUY 22¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $20 3h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Will S BUY 22¢ $25 3h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 14h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes $5 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 57¢ $10 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 49¢ $19 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 15h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 15h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 27¢ $5 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 34¢ $41 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $44 25h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $3 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $7 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 BUY Over $5 27h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Germany BUY $5 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.16 · official $125.16 · 155 history records