Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D3 0xd386…9632 crypto 1270 markets active 4h ago coverage 35d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 34d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$683 (+1%) realized +$683 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate95%1206W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$24
30 days−$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1
other 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 25% -9.1%
≤30d 1004 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 10% -9.7%
≤90d 1270 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 8% -9.5%
all 1270 +0.2% -9.4% 95% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 8% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$37 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$683
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1206 / 64
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1270 / 1270
History coverage35d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1270 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $24 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $45 +$6 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $27 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $18 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $29 +$2 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $76 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$7 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$4 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $73 +$5 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $70 +$7 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $22 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $22 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $54 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $46 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $24 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $23 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$2 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $19 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $26 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $24 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $45 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $29 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $27 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $16 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $18 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $76 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $93 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $61 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $18 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $26 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $49 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $46 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $30 40h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $24 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $73 47h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $23 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records