Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:35:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D3
0xd38b…5029
sports · 563 markets active 69d ago
0.0score
+$2,671,225 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,671,225 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 0 History 563 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Chiefs vs. Broncos Chiefs 67¢ $7,029 $0 −$7,029 (-100%)
Spread: North Texas (-6.5) North Texas 53¢ $4,099 $0 −$4,099 (-100%)
Kennesaw State vs. Western Michigan Kennesaw State 41¢ $52,521 $0 −$52,521 (-100%)
Mariners vs. Tigers Mariners 50¢ $55,000 $0 −$55,000 (-100%)
Georgia Tech vs. Duke: O/U 60.5 Over 51¢ $15,107 $0 −$15,107 (-100%)
O/U 51.5 Under 52¢ $6,792 $0 −$6,792 (-100%)
Spread: Tennessee (-3.5) Florida Gators 51¢ $3,411 $0 −$3,411 (-100%)
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. UCLA: O/U 45.5 Under 51¢ $2,471 $0 −$2,471 (-100%)
Falcons vs. Patriots Falcons 32¢ $9,600 $0 −$9,600 (-100%)
Colts vs. Steelers Colts 62¢ $27,900 $0 −$27,900 (-100%)
Broncos vs. Chiefs: O/U 36.5 Over 55¢ $4,742 $0 −$4,742 (-100%)
SMU vs. TCU SMU 33¢ $16,485 $0 −$16,485 (-100%)
Tulsa vs. East Carolina Tulsa 15¢ $10,737 $0 −$10,737 (-100%)
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Under 53¢ $54,619 $0 −$54,619 (-100%)
Spread: Arizona State (-10.5) Arizona State 51¢ $4,893 $0 −$4,893 (-100%)
TCU vs. BYU TCU 42¢ $293 $0 −$293 (-100%)
O/U 50.5 Over 51¢ $15,610 $0 −$15,610 (-100%)
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Over 47¢ $23,795 $0 −$23,795 (-100%)
Spread: UNLV (-3.5) Hawaii 56¢ $1,400 $0 −$1,400 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. Steelers Steelers 64¢ $25,600 $0 −$25,600 (-100%)
Cowboys vs. Jets Jets 49¢ $20,974 $0 −$20,974 (-100%)
UAB Blazers vs. Rice UAB Blazers 50¢ $19,331 $0 −$19,331 (-100%)
Vikings vs. Chargers: O/U 44.5 Under 49¢ $21,743 $0 −$21,743 (-100%)
New Mexico vs. San Jose State New Mexico 45¢ $11,927 $0 −$11,927 (-100%)
Texas vs. Kentucky: O/U 43.5 Over 52¢ $3,171 $0 −$3,171 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) Apr 05 $14,400 +$15,132 +105%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini Apr 05 $27,600 +$31,428 +114%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $51,300 +$38,314 +75%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) Mar 28 $24,032 +$23,075 +96%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $73,692 −$73,380 -100%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5) Mar 28 $6,878 −$6,848 -100%
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 27 $16,000 −$15,955 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils Mar 27 $5,982 −$5,964 -100%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) Mar 27 $4,539 +$3,531 +78%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) Mar 27 $31,800 +$27,938 +88%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $41,689 +$50,634 +122%
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 26 $64,800 −$64,518 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) Mar 06 $12,250 +$12,750 +104%
Lakers vs. Nuggets Mar 06 $21,700 +$13,300 +61%
Patriots vs. Broncos Jan 25 $99,147 −$99,146 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks Jan 25 $58,001 −$58,001 -100%
Spread: Indiana (-7.5) Jan 23 $60,154 +$57,796 +96%
Miami vs. Indiana Jan 19 $10,048 −$10,048 -100%
Miami vs. Indiana: O/U 47.5 Jan 19 $54,619 −$54,619 -100%
Texans vs. Patriots: O/U 41.5 Jan 19 $64,708 +$72,968 +113%
Spread: Rams (-3.5) Jan 18 $102,863 −$102,863 -100%
Bills vs. Broncos Jan 18 $54,253 +$48,111 +89%
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5) Jan 18 $53,239 +$58,370 +110%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jan 12 $49,532 +$55,931 +113%
Bills vs. Jaguars Jan 12 $5,180 +$6,081 +117%
Chargers vs. Patriots Jan 12 $35,799 −$35,799 -100%
Packers vs. Bears: O/U 44.5 Jan 11 $19,702 +$15,473 +78%
Texans vs. Steelers Jan 11 $8,996 −$8,996 -100%
Chargers vs. Patriots: O/U 46.5 Jan 11 $23,795 −$23,795 -100%
Rams vs. Panthers Jan 11 $6,195 +$1,269 +20%
Rams vs. Panthers: O/U 46.5 Jan 11 $15,324 +$19,503 +127%
Spread: Rams (-10.5) Jan 10 $32,075 −$32,075 -100%
Spread: Patriots (-3.5) Jan 10 $50,704 −$50,704 -100%
Packers vs. Bears Jan 10 $225,995 −$225,995 -100%
Miami vs. Ole Miss Jan 09 $108,781 −$108,781 -100%
Spread: Bengals (-7.5) Jan 05 $10,683 +$12,563 +118%
Ravens vs. Steelers Jan 05 $24,255 +$51,543 +212%
Spread: Bears (-2.5) Jan 05 $6,248 −$6,248 -100%
Spread: Bears (-3.5) Jan 05 $7,449 −$7,449 -100%
Spread: Eagles (-4.5) Jan 05 $8,104 −$8,104 -100%
Dolphins vs. Patriots: O/U 45.5 Jan 05 $11,862 −$11,862 -100%
Cardinals vs. Rams Jan 05 $15,586 +$3,656 +24%
Spread: Rams (-7.5) Jan 05 $16,916 +$12,433 +74%
Chiefs vs. Raiders Jan 05 $30,760 +$54,685 +178%
Spread: Ravens (-3.5) Jan 04 $97,586 −$97,586 -100%
Spread: Falcons (-3.5) Jan 04 $3,539 −$3,539 -100%
Lions vs. Bears Jan 04 $4,027 −$4,027 -100%
Spread: Seahawks (-1.5) Jan 04 $12,086 +$9,496 +79%
Panthers vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5 Jan 04 $16,441 +$15,176 +92%
Seahawks vs. 49ers Jan 04 $277,720 +$192,992 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% +$2,731,090
other 0% −$59,865
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-1.5) BUY Connecticut Huskies 48¢ $14,400 68d
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini BUY Connecticut Huskies 46¢ $27,600 68d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $4,130 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $3,101 76d
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5) BUY Iowa State Cyclones 48¢ $6,878 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $2 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $9 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $1 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $35 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $7,413 76d
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones BUY Iowa State Cyclones 59¢ $59,000 76d
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies BUY Connecticut Huskies 57¢ $51,300 76d
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines BUY Alabama Crimson Tide 20¢ $16,000 76d
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) BUY St. Johns Red Storm 51¢ $1,917 76d
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-6.5) BUY St. Johns Red Storm 51¢ $22,114 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $4,984 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $2 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $300 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $0 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $2 76d
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils BUY St. Johns Red Storm 29¢ $694 76d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 51¢ $6,489 77d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 44¢ $26,400 77d
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 44¢ $8,800 77d
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) BUY Illinois Fighting Illini 56¢ $4,539 77d
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-7.5) BUY Arizona Wildcats 53¢ $31,800 77d
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyes BUY Nebraska Cornhuskers 54¢ $64,800 77d
Spread: Nuggets (-4.5) BUY Nuggets 49¢ $12,250 98d
Lakers vs. Nuggets BUY Nuggets 62¢ $21,700 98d
Patriots vs. Broncos BUY Broncos 34¢ $17,033 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 12 +14.7% +3.8% 58% 58% -3.7%
all 563 +9.6% -0.9% 50% 50% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.9% 50% +7.8%
10% ← realistic here -10.3% 49% -2.6%
15% -19.0% 49% -12.0%
20% -26.9% 47% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2498 history records